EastonSN+

This happens every single blocking event. Everyone panics cause the models rush the good look. 2010 we had a massive cutter that brought down the Minnesota dome 2 weeks into the blocking patter and as Bluewave alluded to it took the entire month for the blocking to migrate west and clean up the PAC. Not saying this is 2010 and Forky said "Since" 2010 not including 2010. Question - has ANY red tagger stated concern that the pattern won't happen? I will definitely show concern if any red tagger stated that the good look may never happen or only last a couple days.

That's raises a good question, what was the best blocking period since 2010? For me thinking 1.) March April 2018 2.) February 2021 3.) February March 2013 4.) January 2016

This looks pretty darn good to me. Slight neg. NAO. Positive PNA. We don't want blocking to be that strong or yes will be cold and dry.

Remember just like models always rush the great pattern look, they will always do the same with the break down. Also looking at the ensembles it weakens blocking with the PNA but I do not see it completely disappearing. Remember if we have a PNA and STRONG blocking it will be suppression city. We NEED the blocking to be -1 to -2, NOT -4, -5.

Yup - I think Forky is going to be 100% correct on this one (he always stated would be after Christmas).

Actually ahead of 2010 in Fairfield, had an inch this storm was zero in 2010.

NYC = 49 EWR = 52 MMU = 55 ISP = 36 SWF = 67

Bridgeport in the water reported 0.8, so Fairfield had at least an inch.

Forgot to mention it was not a temperature issue for West and southwest, it was the storm was wayyyy out to sea so NE was just closer.

Yeah I had 9.5 here in CT. Good storm.

In March 2013 we had a long duration snow event. 4 to 10 west to east.

GEFS looks better than 6z in LR, blocking looks like it's re developing and trough still in east.

One important factor of the GEFS is this run has a slightly more east component. This could allow for a little back end snow (nothing like December 02 but maybe light)?

Oh Canada.

Forgot to mention, ensembles always speed up the breakdown of a pattern (just like they rushed the incoming pattern look).

Correct a monster too. 14 here I think central Park 16.

Looking at the GEFS and EPS there are changes way out. EPS has shifted the trough from mid country to east coast to match GEFS. Colder look. Keeps weaker blocking. GEFS completely looses the blocking by day 15. However: 1.) Positive PNA keeps the trough and cold east 2.) As Bluewave and LI have stated -4 AOs in December usually lead to late season blocking.

I lucked out with 1.5 last night (I am only .75 miles north of the Merritt). 10/11 did not snow will boxing day 00/01 not till December 30 12/13 only one 4.5 event in December Reason I raise those is they all had serious blocking where we had to wait up till a month to score, and in 12/13 February. Also, I trust Forky's opinion as he only opines when he feels there is legitimate potential. He bumped yesterday where he said we start scoring after Christmas.

Stole from the MA forum. Have we ever seen -4 followed by a -5 AO in the same month before?

Yeah I would be shocked if we were shut out during this upcoming period, for with the cold nearby we can score in changeover events and weak trailing waves at the very least. I do think the ceiling is very high and still has KU potential.

You know I was thinking about that, freezing cold warm up rain freezing cold after the front. Some of those winters had a bad rap though, a lot of them were 75% of average which is basically like last winters total. Not great but not ratter after ratter.

Ended up with 1.5 final in Easton CT.

Ended up with 1.5 final in Easton CT.

1 inch in Easton CT. Good to get on the board.