EastonSN+

Didn't almost the exact same thing happen December 2012? Neg NAO and all but like this year we had 1 minor event and we had the SAME nose of warmth to the east that connected with the NAO. I know someone posted the December 2012 H5 plot before however cannot find. I don't think this is a new era where a December Neg NAO will never work again. It just failed like 2012.

17/18 was one of my top 5 winters. 70 degrees in February with a 4.5 inch snowstorm mixed in before the epic March. You can't snow in a more hostile environment than that Feb. I think the METS we're saying historically when we hit -4.0 AO Blocking typically returns Looking at the ensembles blocking never leaves! PAC is all over the place. We are really following 12/13 it seems. That Winter we had 1 snowstorm in the December blocking periods that was considered a basic fail. This year we already had one snowstorm and now failing. I think Bluewave showed the H5 map from December 2012 and it had that link up to the NAO on the coast like we are experiencing now. 12/13 ended up being solidly above average snowfall wise. Let's see if this winter comes close. We shall see.

Yup sometimes the good patterns fail and the bad patterns produce (see February 2018).

While the ensembles continue to vary on the PAC progression, all continue the blocking straight through.

Thanks Walt! Made a visit to the MA forum and the 6Z EPS definitely shifted east a bit. IMBY (coastal CT) already had 1.5 inches. Would gladly take a 1 to 3 incher before the rain to pad the December snowfall stats.

Yeah I took a peak at the EPS, GEPS and GEFS. Only the EPS shows a full GOA Trough while the others show it being temporary. GEPS seems to be a good middle ground this morning FWIW.

I mean this always had a risk of cutting per below older runs. Recent runs gave us a head fake. Like Forky stated after Christmas. And what has changed in the pattern depicted in the ensembles?

GEFS will post GEPS once in.

Hey if a red tagger states this I would believe it.

Thanks!

Just like yesterday looked like a monster snowstorm was coming in, today looks more like 50/50 rain or snow. If this change happened in the course of 12 hours, imagine what the changes could be by tomorrow morning. Could be massive rainstorm and wind or a blizzard. My advice is to listed to red taggers when they opine on the matter, for it's their profession. EVEN IF THIS ONE IS RAIN, I am confident in the step-down progression of the pattern and would in no way affect my thoughts on the winter progression.

Could end up a good old fashioned 6 to 10 with a changeover. Just for fun for both storms.

Feb 2010. I am technically in New England and rained all day and night until the next morning when the storm occluded. Ended up with 8 inches of snow on the back end after a day of rain! Air mass will be colder on this storm too.

Wow

What a monster on the GFS.

This winter may end up being something really special.

Epic storm depiction on GFS! Let's wait for the CMC to roll before we get our hopes up

I believe the Cleveland superbomb primary low made it further north than the primary low depicted on a lot of the ensembles. If the primary low remains inland BUT never reaches our latitude before kicking east with a high to our north......

I saw this on the individual ensembles where the mean is misleading due to the high spread/multiple lows. I do have a question, if the coastal low occludes/vertically stacks SW of us never reaching our latitude, what would that mean for precip types? In the Feb 2010 storm, when the storm occluded my area switched to snow after a full day of rain and ended up with 8 inches.

00/01 was a really good above average snowfall winter as well.

That was so close to the big one on the GFS.

This is what makes weather so great. Nuances that can be the difference between a monster snowstorm or wind driven rain. Keeps us tuning back in again and again. Love it.

Looks like the typical snowfall distribution from my childhood. Every single storm "snow will fall well north and west...."

Where I was had nothing but dustings. This year already at 1.5

Hey, if the fact that we only had one minor snowfall event so far is depressing some, just think of how bad 2010/2011 and 00/01 we're, we had not snowfall yet in either of those winters by this date!