caviman2201

I for one can't wait to see the NOHRSC Seasonal Snowfall map after two southern sliders... the DC-Balt-I95 snowhole is going to be in full bloom. Here's where we stand right now: ... and here's the GFS thru 300: ... put them together, and...

Reminds me of the Valentine's Day 2015 event... that was nuts.

Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something?

Watching it close in on me is both fascinating and depressing lol

Pretty sure I've now eclipsed last winter in Glen Burnie... I had forgotten how beautiful just little over a half inch of white gold can be.

I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later?

Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird

HRRR is keeping the SLP further SE like the globals were a day or two ago...

My sister lives in Pocono Lake... I'll share pics of the utter destruction when she sends them to me to gloat

Also, I don't see the Inner Harbor with full UHI outperforming BWI in this one being so thermals dependent.

In all seriousness though if there ever was a storm for novice chasers, this is it. If this crazy gradient verifies, those of us in the coastal plain who have never chased have a rare opportunity to chase from cold rain to a foot of snow and be back before our boss notices we left.

That map is nuts. I live in Glen Burnie so I'll be chasing to the NW side of my neighborhood for a few extra inches

The snow axis on the GFS has changed from NE/SW to E/W over the past few runs... interesting development

If it had continued NE from Hr53-56, it would have been a significant move SE from 12z... maybe thats what the SLP will actually do, but maybe its something someone smarter than me can explain because 12z didn't do that. It was tucked the whole way up the coast and move more or less due NE.

Doesn't the progression of the low look a little odd? At hr54 its at the CBBT, hr55 its 10mi offshore, hr56 its off the southern tip of Chincoteague (all fine so far) but then at hr57 it jumps 25mi NW over Deale, MD, moves due N over Cambridge and then moves NE from there. Hr53-54 on 18z was significantly SE of Hr59-60 on the 12z before that random jump NW where it 'corrected' to match 12z's SLP track.

This is going to be a pure nowcasting event for everyone within 15 miles of I95. I really don't think any of the models are going to know where the 925 and 850 0C boundaries are going to set up with any lead time. This will be an HRRR and CC NEXRAD day for people like me living close to Baltimore. I'm putting no stock in the models other than 'its going to be very close and I'm going to see a mixed bag throughout the day, possibly ending with some nice deform.

This is 24hrs old...

Yea but... That's harder

Pretty sure I took Physical Geography with him too in the 2003-2005 timeframe. Neat.

Doesn't this include things like compaction and melting? I think most of us understand (I hope) that in a storm like this 10" of snowfall will in no way mean 10" on the ground at the end. Even a short period of mixing would knock down all the front end snow to dense slush.

Does the RGEM have the 'amped at range' issues that the NAM has given that they are both short range meso models?

Sorry if already posted... WBAL/Tony Pann going kinda conservative

So when can we expect to see your forecast? Tomorrow?

Very.. I'm in northern AACo and feel like I'll be able to drive 30 mins to either a slushy inch or a foot. If that means I get 3-6 I'm perfectly fine with that but the bleeding must stop. Euro walked me off the ledge a little which is kind of rare.

Eeeek... the kiss of death...