North Balti Zen

@WxUSAF wrote: Absolutely brutal.

That’s all aimed at me. Fair. Guilty. It would be nice to get to warning level here for a change - especially if a lot of the rest of the area is cashing in.

This note from Pete Mullinax is on point (we are so lucky he is on the desk at WPC):

Just tired of ****ing lectures . And especially irritated that I am one of the few who actually follows instructions on where to post during storm mode and still gets shit from people like snowfan...

Lol. I love you, but **** off with this.

Big dog chasing? What the hell? Yeah, wanting 4-6 and a verified warning level event sure is crazy.

As for people mad that folks are posting their expectations in this thread - what the ****? This is the banter thread. Not even ok to post in here?

See my two posts. Generally agree. I am 2-4 - best south.

You do understand why the people in my area are a bit on edge, I hope. We have gotten the shaft on every event for five years, when literally just miles away in some cases snow amounts have doubled. Just Sunday I had two colleagues who live just six miles north of me get 4-5 Inches while I got the Blutarsky (0.0). I promise you, I genuinely love snow. Tried to chase it in December and even managed to screw up Emmitsburg’s snow with my arrival. Maybe it is just me.

I guess by “going south” in this case I am referring to the press of cold air pushing the best narrow band to our south. Until we stop getting the shaft in this area, I am gonna note well when guidance points to how we are getting the shaft this time. Since Sunday midday the models have consistently pushed the band of good snow south as they finally locked onto the cold press. Was in central PA, now, DC south. That TREND is hard to ignore. I don’t see any reason to say it will pop back north other than the hope we all carry for better outcomes for our area. This one looks like 48 hours of seeing good returns and reading joy from a lot of our area just to the south while we are frustrated here. The January 2018 or 19 frustration storm (whichever year Ellicott city got 11 inches and I got just under five and the best snow never could pierce 695 comes to mind). hope I am wrong, but 2-4 into dry air over 48 hours would kinda blow for my area.

Current call for our area: Looks too south to me (guidance). Best snows stay south, we deal with lack of rates, poor snow growth, and dry air. 2-4 and on to the next storm of finally trying not to get hosed.

Maybe people are finally listening and are now afraid to post. This one is a good test of “you want the best snows just south” thesis for the baltimore crew. I would be more comfortable across the DC area. Hope both our areas can score.

Asking because I don't recall---do they have an ice product?

Mentioned over on banter that the ice storm portion of this is no joke. Very few in our forum dealing with plain rain.

That was a fun run to watch unfold. And the ice storm portion in central VA on that run was no joke.

Excuse me...you mean South Bel Air jackpot...lol.

@psuhoffman wrote: Raises hand. I care. Also concerned about your observation.

@Bob Chill wrote: Hmmm...that doesn't sound right...

Oh joy. Seriously, now in my 12th year of living in Balt City, I have become REALLY expert in figuring out how the fail will happen. From past experience with this kind of set-up here, it has been appalling how slow it can be to get the snow started and so much qpf can be wasted just above the surface until it gets to the ground. So lower QPF over our area combined with that potentially would make me itchy...

Sure, makes sense. Just don't want dry air to saddle up to the buffet up our way. It not being a coastal doesn't bug me because we fail a whole other way with those...

Was thinking more that the bullseye for events specific to our forum has been west - the I-81 crew down to C'ville (with the usual arc'ing over to the Catoctins and PSU)...seeing them get bullseyed over to I-81 again makes some sense. In the overall big picture, yes, they pale in comparison to Lehigh Valley. But within our forum, they've generally cashed in max in most events.

@WxUSAF wrote: Generally, but...not sure that holds here, where we have a cold press and waves. Get that boundary a hair too far south and the dry air eats precip at the edges. That would be my failure mode for my 'hood on this one, frankly, so I am raising an eyebrow. And, that the areas that keep bullseyeing wander back into the bullseye makes the old "atmospheric memory" box get checked too...

It has its own thread.

not at 25 degrees or colder it doesn't...

Since we never ever "jack" here in Balt City - or even come close to that, yes, we would like to see a solid six inch storm where we don't have to read celebrations from every county around us while we have rain or sit in yet another shadow or between bands or whatever.