North Balti Zen

I think there was an interim update posted in the snow predictions contest thread...

Freezing rain and 30 on my walk just now with the pup - ice everywhere over the snow. Waiting to see if it can flip back to snow.

Really pulling for you guys. Would be awesome. Good luck.

Find you something in life that makes you as happy as a snowed over parking lot that is empty and crusted with ice like a skating rink and a bright orange frisbee that slides forever and ever like it does a yellow lab. What a great walk just now.

Dammit. iPhone and typing too quickly. Fixed.

I guess I remain stunned at how some people view long range guidance. I would have thought we were all on board that from 5-7 days out the long range models in winter are useful for getting a general idea of big features - upper air patterns, the possibility of storminess, the availability of cold. From 5-7 days ahead of today at least the Euro was advertising the possibility of a storm along the east coast, and that it might pack a punch. It is beyond strange to me that anyone would say that was a failure because the blob of insane snow ended up 150 miles from our area. The fact that it nailed that there was a storm in this window AND that the storm would have an impact is really quite a feat. Even from 3-4 days out when the GFS and CMC began to catch on the blob moved around - which makes sense given the complexity of the set-up. But for people to spend time in the main thread being mad online and claiming that one model blows or another model blows because it didn't exactly put the conditions of a complex system over their neighborhood five days out is crazy to me. Especially if they carry a certain color tag. If this was summer and one model showed a week out highs for the area at 107, I would assume that people would raise an eyebrow and note that big heat looks like a possibility. Then, when a week passes and the high is "only" 101, I don't recall people dunking on the model for being insanely wrong. Maybe this same kind of craziness arises around tropical systems, I don't follow those as closely, But I would presume that a week out if a model is able to successfully show a storm in a general area and there ends up actually being a storm in the general area a week later, that's a pretty good heads up. In any event, congrats to our mets on this board who work on modeling the atmosphere. It is pretty damn impressive work.

Feels very near deep winter. 4.1" of snow and ice - about .1 snow and ice overnight. Everything is my neighborhood is crusted over. This snow will be here awhile from past experience with an ice cap. Fingers crossed for an additional bit of snow today, that would be hella cool.

I believe tracker is referring to Cleveland Park neighborhood, DC.

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

It's not a fight over snow. At all. It's wondering why a red tagger is trolling. Which he is and has been.

Seriously, here's the sequence: What the **** is that from a red tagger? That reads like Chuck stuff. Even rank amateurs know that five day out progs are not taken literally. The Euro pointed everyone toward the potential of a long duration storm affecting areas on the coast from five days out - which is pretty ****ing amazing. "It was sampled as OUR storm" --- what the bloody hell? That's not how it works. He's a red tagger writing that crap. We have mets on this board who do incredible work on modeling - just amazing work @high risk and others - this is crazy talk coming from a fellow met. And god forbid it get called out...

It indeed cannot. We know from Millville just how gut-wrenchingly hard it is and how it impacts them.

Thanks. That was very politic and well stated. I assume Ravensrule will be along shortly to tell you that you suck for daring to point that out about ers.

He trolls. It's unreal from a red-tagger. He's calling out the Euro from 156 for not having the EXACT DETAILS RIGHT on where the max would be. Rather than acknowleding that all models are guidance and from 156 the Euro was correct as hell that there would be an east coast storm of note with a chance of a high impact. If anyone else did that, it would be rightfully called out. So, go **** yourself, you mewling taint.

Thanks for calling it what it is.

He's awful.

I don't obsess over radar screaming doom during an event like you do, but the one I am looking at holds snow and backbuilds over my area for several hours. And then after midnight, we see what happens with the start of the coastal. After all these years, why are you still living in the bay? Move across town somewhere.

I am over in Roland Park/Mt Washington area and I can assure you it is perfectly good stuff here at the moment, and it looks like it holds here for several hours.

you are just always the angel of doom. always.

I am super pleased with what is happening now. If this can hold for a few hours I will go over five inches...

Just back from a walk. It is probably as good now in terms of rates as it was earlier today. I am now at 4". I think I may make verified warning criteria. It is gorgeous out.

Just had to mute Tombo on twitter. I just...I can't see the glee.

Hell, this is close enough that it can be in the 3-7 day thread.

There can some pretty awesome midwestern blizzards out your way though. Huge wind driven events if you catch the right one.

holding at 3.2 inches - hoping something decent re-organizes and gives better flakes again for awhile in Balt City. Been snizzle for about three hours now...