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qg_omega

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Everything posted by qg_omega

  1. qg_omega
    Agreed, I’ve been touting the upcoming warmth and unfortunately this is going to happen in MJO 3, just wait until we hit 4. Very ugly pattern rest of the month where we aren’t even seasonably cold after massive cutters
  2. qg_omega
    Temps are in the 40s for Long Island
  3. qg_omega
    I wish but much too cold for WP, maybe an inch or two before the rain. Nothing for city or island
  4. qg_omega
    It was easier to handle when the whole country was warm. Now we bask while the west has historic cold and snow as the SE ridge and NAO connect, 2024 meet 2023.
  5. qg_omega
    Also massive west coast trough and signs SE ridge links to NAO domain but I guess we ignore the negatives
  6. qg_omega
    This looks fine for a first call
  7. qg_omega
    This looks pretty reasonable
  8. qg_omega
    MJO into 4, dumps the PV west of the divide. Real chance SE ridge extends into block and it’s last year in a strong Nino. I mentioned this risk in the fall.
  9. qg_omega
    Ugly pattern on the EPS as you once again connect the SE ridge and the block when a massive trough out west. Luckily @brooklynwx99 says trough out west is transient.
  10. qg_omega
    No I haven’t, can’t post 1k times with my limit but you can check my posts, Thku. Lots of anger in here today from these responses
  11. qg_omega
    She gone, Pope FTW. He was the only one showing 1/4 going the way of 1/7
  12. qg_omega
    Still see this as the main risk
  13. qg_omega
  14. qg_omega
    CFS MJO looks like EPS which given the background is GFS makes me think the GEFS is wrong
  15. qg_omega
    Looks like any snow will be gone in only a few days with the follow up cutter
  16. qg_omega
    Risk is suppression here not rain
  17. qg_omega
    Increased water vapor from the volcano combined with cleaner air due to reduced aerosol and sulfur pollution has rapidly accelerated the warming, this is fact and not debatable
  18. qg_omega
    No more ice castle in lake George, just too warm now in winter.
  19. qg_omega
    Not surprising given how bad the EPS has become, toss far and wide. Pattern > Modelology. Pattern says this is a swing and a miss. Need major changes to say otherwise.
  20. qg_omega
    Hard to get excited on something 35 days away
  21. qg_omega
    Big trough in the west where we want a ridge, chasing ghosts
  22. qg_omega
    Nice words Ray, my posts over the past many months have been dead on accurate but nice to see the personal attacks are back from you
  23. qg_omega
    Not sure what posting a composite from years with no relevance in our new climate normal proves anything, sorry.
  24. qg_omega
    No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA? I am not seeing it at all. PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.
  25. qg_omega
    Good lesson in the long range on models have no value, ensembles or operational. Growing consensus can disappear on the next run.
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