Correct, I said this months ago. Typical loaded February Nino is no longer relevant. SSTs are so warm on a global scale, anything before 2015 really can’t be used
I remember last week your sensitivity analysis had Jan at +.6 which seemed much too cold. It’s been slowly and now recently rapidly going up to 2.7 which is likely still too cold
Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS. No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño. Next year we go right back to strong Nina. Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity
Looks too cold, go warmer the MJO plus PAC extension favor record warmth. Very little to no cold records with this current airmass (Northeast) but likely record warmth on Friday and then again late next week.