qg_omega

Week late on an historically cold winter is a bit odd

Albany area really underperformed, real precip never made it north. NWS was forecasting 18-24

EPS is not good but ok

Expect he’s a weenie and didn’t actually measure and I actually did but sure COCORAHS ...Westchester County... Somers 17.0 in 0917 PM 01/25 Public 2 SSW Greenville 16.5 in 0910 PM 01/25 Public 2 SSW Golden`s Bridge 16.5 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter Dobbs Ferry 15.0 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 1 SE Sleepy Hollow 15.0 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Mamaroneck 14.5 in 0940 AM 01/26 1 SSE Valhalla 14.5 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter Peekskill 2.8 NNE 14.0 in 0700 AM 01/26 COCORAHS Shrub Oak 14.0 in 0630 AM 01/26 COOP 1 SSW Jefferson Valley 14.0 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Briarcliff Manor 13.1 in 0820 PM 01/25 Public 1 ENE Peekskill 13.0 in 0727 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 1 NE North Castle 13.0 in 0510 PM 01/25 Public South Salem 12.6 in 0715 AM 01/26 COCORAHS 1 NNE Hastings-on-Hudson 12.5 in 1038 PM 01/25 Public 1 ESE Croton-on-Hudson 12.5 in 0743 PM 01/25 Public Hartsdale 12.5 in 0344 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 1 E Scarsdale 12.0 in 0930 PM 01/25 Public 1 N Briarcliff Manor 12.0 in 0805 PM 01/25 Public Tuckahoe 12.0 in 0542 PM 01/25 Public Armonk 11.7 in 0800 AM 01/26 COCORAHS 2 NW Woodlawn 11.7 in 1036 PM 01

Imagine if we had good ratios for this storm…started off well which is why the major sites almost hit a foot but ratios quickly went under 10:1 and then closer to 6:1…. Even at 10:1 average we would have seen widespread 20+ inches

No it’s not I’m in White plains and have 11.5

Central Park won’t make 10

It’s mostly sleet here in white plains, visibility really up now. 11 inches, think we can squeeze out another inch but storm is over

Maybe another 4 hrs at most of any real accumulation, inch or so of sleet or a few inches of snow depending on location

Should have

Haven’t snowed at this cold 8-9 degrees in years around these parts

Moderate snow already 2 inches. 8/4 temp/dew

-29 This morning SLK

8.3 inches January 28-29 in 2022

This has trended to every SWFE we have had the past 5 years

It has a local screw zone between the two coastal lows, very similar to UKMET.

Throwing out NAM, very good consensus of around 8 to 10

Plenty of SWFE where we had 2 inch thump rates over the past 5 years that went to Sleet

NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet. Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago

Need to look at 700mb for the warm push and surface temps are not relevant

Why is every storm a SWFE now, really missing real coastal storms and CCB snow, hopefully we get one this year

Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb. In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled. Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday

We had a few high ratio clippers in the old days