You said this week upcoming looked great last week, instead this week is near 50 everyday with intermittent rain. The models past a few days, even ensembles are no better than a coin flip
Bingo, honestly next few weeks look worse than what we had last week (snow for central and northern New England). I see warmth and weak rain systems next two to three weeks. Awful stretch in the heart of winter
Correct, very stable pattern with the cold water south of Alaska and the Nina forcing causing the MJO to stall and loop. However the NAO is not stable, I see nothing promising for next few weeks
We said it was unlikely the MJO would make it out of 7 with a risk of stalling and looping due to destructive interference from the strong Nina, this is happening