qg_omega

GFS has been locked in for days, bet against it at your own risk

Amazing how consistent GFS has been, it’s just laying waste to the Euro storm after storm. Everyone knows the risk is a whiff here (besides Pope who argues this cuts to Buffalo)

What?

RGEM is east, GFS leading way on this

Remember, Euro has a severe westward bias in these situations. GFS will lead the way here. Never forget, 60 hr lead time

East trend is undeniable, congrats SNE

DT says biggest risk is a whiff 1. All of the weather models on Monday morning and at midday are now in strong agreement in showing a ruly impressive powerful LOW pressure area developing off the Southeast coast on Friday night. This LOW will track in a NNE or NE direction as it parallels the East coast. Because of the jet stream pattern across North America, additional energy coming down from western Canada into the Plains and the Midwest, there is little chance that this LOW pressure area is going to hug the coast and/ or come inland. 2. This means that the main risk that of what could go wrong is LOW tracking too far to the east and missing everyone on the coast

Yup, we begin the slip east now. 18z RGEM also leaving energy behind and would be east as well

UKMET leading the way, Pope agrees

We whiff

Yes very much so

Epic pattern looks to break down in a week

She’s gone

Current 5 degree temp feels colder than yday -20 but blue bird

Was chilly this morning, same tonight

Models were fine for this, it’s the weenie snowmaps that were horrid

Should be gone by end of day

Epic pants tent pattern is ongoing

Epic pants tent pattern continues to deliver

GFS ends winter in 10 days

Models are backing off the extreme cold

Cold night incoming dropping like a rock since sundown with the fresh pack .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Update as of 643 PM EST... High pressure over NY and New England is providing mostly clear/clear skies with lightening winds early this evening. Temps are crashing quickly over the southern Dacks with the Old Forge NYS mesonet site down to -3F. Some mid and high clouds are increasing over western NY. A period of radiational cooling is expected for a few hours before the clouds increase. We did lower temps over the northwestern zones into the Adirondacks, but steady or increase them overnight. Otherwise, tranquil and cold conditions persist with decreasing winds.

Winds have been an issue for the larger bodies, tonight should help but ice still below normal across all of the northeast

NAM leading the way on this one