qg_omega

Remember when ensembles “didn’t make sense” because of MJO. Me too

No changes, that is my reasoning. You can look at my posts from November or December as well, nothing has change and nothing will change. I already had this ensemble debate with you before, running a model at a low resolution 50 times is not what I would be using to forecast a very sharp gradient pattern, in fact its likely the worst tool you can use but by all means.

lol, it’s rain after rain after rain and honestly the cold behind the cutters is not impressive. We are running +10 to +14 this month with no signs of any cold outside a day or two of slightly below normal

I had +8 this month thinking last week or so would cool down but still maybe too cool

its cold behind a cutter....the trough will re-establish on the west coast. No signs to suggest FEB will be anything but well above normal.

Next week on the GFS, this is not a pattern change.

fits the pattern to a T

No changes

No changes

As long as the cold stays out west, best we can do is a gradient pattern here until we actually get warmth in the West. Still no signs of that happening

Correct

It’s 100 percent subtropical

Did the euro’s 12 inches on the cape verify?

Euro had 8 inches for the cape by now?

That was quick, nothing now

No changes

Congrats on the blizzard SNE! Please post pics

Is that 966mb low?

Insane how bad the euro is at east coast storms since the upgrade a few years ago

Of course Will, but think it drills into the WC

Agreed, West has been cashing in and the pattern change just makes it even colder out west with still a very active pattern for them. Lots of cutters continue on this side of the country

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly. I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast. I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point. I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots. However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier. I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer. March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events. Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

You have 11k posts, I wouldn’t call that “rational” but you do you. I’m putting out forecasts and have crushed it this year so far to a tee. You seem to like personal attacks while not putting out any forecasts or original thoughts. You can go back on my posts and actually read my thoughts and forecasts but alas you resort to personal attacks. It’s sad to see.