Blizzard of 93

The Warning still verified in many areas. Large snow total variance will probably show from one end of a county to the other with the snow total statements by county that CTP issues.

It’s a shame that this narrow band determined winners & losers in such an extreme way. I would have been happier with a general widespread 3 to 5 for everyone, which is the way it looked on most models until 24 hours out when the 2 band idea started showing up. The MDT total later today will be a shame. They just did not get into the banding & had a low amount of precip. Areas less than 20 miles to their north like me, Jonesy in Linglestown, & AccuChris in Lebanon had over 5 inches. Bizarre storm that will go officially in the record book at MDT as unremarkable, but several of us will remember it otherwise.

This reminds me of what it must be like in a lake effect event with reports of 6 to 12 in various areas of our region, while areas 20 to 30 miles away in different directions only got 1 or 2.

Yes, it was remarkable. I looked out a few times & it was ripping snow in that band. The fluff factor was high. I needed to go out at this late hour to verify what I thought that I was eyeballing. I was pleasantly surprised at the 6.5. I have a decent chance to reach 8 with a couple of hours to go even with the lightened up current rate.

This band near Harrisburg means business. i am up to 6.5 of snow in Marysville with moderate snow ongoing at 1:20 am.

Similar scene here as well. Roads caved in Marysville. Eyeballing roughly 2 inches of fluffy snow.

Snow is picking up in rate & flake size. Treated roads are starting to cave.

Mesoscale Discussion 149 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours.

Steady snow in Marysville. Current temperature 32 Grass, trees & car tops covered & working on the first inch.

A little late for model, but I’ll take it.

Here is my current model analysis… Incoming!

First flakes in Marysville! It's now casting time & radar time. Try to enjoy it every one. Models will be there tomorrow!

CTP just freshened up the Warning at 8:45 pm. Time to sit back & enjoy…!

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 845 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-171345- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0006.240217T0200Z-240217T1400Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 845 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Franklin, Cumberland, Adams, York and Lancaster Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

Radar looks great to me…. All systems go!

That’s depth that you posted… 21z SREF not out yet in WB

18z Euro cut back a bit from 12z. I have no issue with 4 in my yard & at MDT.

It’s now casting time. Look at this radar. Tapping into a little Gulf moisture

My dew point is down to 18

Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast. Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.

Here is a wider view of the 18z GFS for everyone that doesn’t live in the southern tier… Everything looks right on track for CTP’s call at this time.

CTP made me feel special by giving my county their own special Warning Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 139 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 PAZ056-170900- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0006.240217T0200Z-240217T1400Z/ Perry- Including the city of Newport 139 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Perry County. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

12z Euro snow map ONLY for the late NEXT week chance

Don’t look now, but the Euro has a 972 low in the central Chesapeake next Friday. We have yet another chance…