Blizzard of 93

From CTP… ”A deepening low pressure system lifting out of the Gulf Coast will track across Delaware and the southern tip of New Jersey Monday night into early Tuesday bringing a Moderate to heavy snowfall across much of Central and Northern PA, while a longer period of rain for the first half of the storm leads to a slushy coating to few inches across the region east of Interstate 83 and south of the PA Turnpike.”

12z GEFS & 12z GEPS both brought the snow line further south than their previous run. Both now get 4.7 to Harrisburg by Tuesday evening.

12z Canadian similar low position as the GFS.

Despite being told it’s over last night & that me & apparently CTP were wishcasting….. The 12z GFS had Warning snow for the Harrisburg area on to the north.

CTP refreshed the Watch overnight but did mention at the end that they may cancel the Watch if amounts continue to drop in southern PA.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-112045- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will turn to snow through the night Monday night and early Tuesday. The storm track is now expected to be slightly farther north. This should allow the precipitation to stay rain for longer during the storm. Thus, snowfall totals are expected to be less than earlier forecasts for southern PA. The watch may be cancelled if the expected snow amounts continue to drop.

6z EPS & 6z GEFS still keep the LSV in the game for Advisory snow & still have Warning snow for the northern half of CTP.

6z NAM still looks good with a coastal low track a little further offshore. It brings 3 to 4 down to even Rouzerville & Hanover.

6z GFS gets Advisory snow to Harrisburg & Warning snow further north on CTP.

0% was directed at you good sir! The visiting pot stirring posters set me off & being called a disrespectful wishcaster by that one dude put me on edge to say the least.

Here is some of CTP’s latest Forecast discussion: ”LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: * Increasing potential for plowable to possibly heavy snow Monday night into early Tuesday (February 12-13th) * A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of central Pennsylvania Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * Some uncertainty still exists on the western fringe and across southern PA, where the placement of the low could allow for longer periods of rain, lowering snowfall totals. All medium range guidance phases a potent southern stream shortwave with the northern branch of the jet early Tuesday, as if lifts northeast from the Miss Valley. The bulk of model guidance tracks the associated deepening surface low just south of PA and off the Delmarva Peninsula by early Tuesday morning, placing much of Central PA in the bullseye for the heaviest precipitation associated with strong warm advection and upper level diffluence north of the low track. A dual jet streak structure favors a region of enhanced fgen forcing in this region north of the low track. Model cross section analyses are also indicating a good instability signature between 06Z-12Z Tuesday, with a layer of negative EPV located in the layer just above the frontogenesis. This scenario supports the potential of intense banding somewhere over Central or Southern PA late Monday night. As for ptype, model consensus currently points to an initial rain/snow mix changing to snow late Monday night in association with dynamic cooling initially, then cold advection on the northwest periphery of the exiting low. Although this scenario definitely supports the possibility for a period of heavy snow across a large portion of Central PA, there remains some significant model spread in the exact low track, which could alter exactly where the heaviest precipitation falls. The 18Z GEPS for instance tracks the surface low considerably further south, which could result in the heaviest precipitation falling over extreme Southeast PA with little over the northern half of the state. The current Winter Storm Watch highlights where model consensus currently supports the best chance of a 6+ inch snowfall. Locations to the north and west of the main swath will get less precip and thus less snow overall, while areas further south (closer to the low track) will have to contend with a longer period of rain before any changeover. Timing has become more clear with recent model guidance, suggesting the heaviest snow will fall during the predawn hours of Tuesday, with the most significant travel impacts expected for the Tuesday morning commute. Please stay tuned for updates to the forecast, as details continue to be ironed out in upcoming forecast cycles.”

Yes, just about 10 minutes away. Beautiful park there as well right along the river with scenic views.

Can’t be right because a few people think it’s over….LOL

Yes, we might need a southern tier PA & northern tier of MD thread soon…

Here’s more grasping at straws from pro Mets at the National Weather Service…. How about we give them some respect. I suppose they are grasping straws?

In every thread on here the good posters that make quality contributions day after day are getting attacked… What a crazy freaking world we live in!

Really, you’ve got to kidding me right? I’m the disrespectful wishcaster…. Grasping at straws when there is still no model consensus… Oh… & I’m sitting currently under a Winter Storm Watch from CTP… Thanks for your contribution…

Yep, it’s already Tuesday…. I must have slept for 3 freaking days…

I forgot the storm already freaking happened!!!! No one has won or lost yet!!!

According to the 0z Canadian, all of CTP & even DuBois gets virtually shutout. Congrats to the Lehigh Valley & NJ this run. Far from a consensus.

Not always, just look at last month when DC won twice with last minute south trends.

Yes, it’s over because of 1 GFS run…. Great call, lol…. See you at 6z ….

Yes, Warning snow for even the LSV. Great low position off of OCMD on the 0z NAM.

18z EPS was basically a hold from its 12z run. It still has Advisory snow for the LSV with more to the north.

My bad, was posting from the road…. Here is the 21z run through Tuesday evening