Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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6z GFS shifted a bit north overnight & this run was a good snow hit most most of CTP to roughly north of the turnpike. All of us are still in the game for early next week.
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0z Euro is on board for the early next week chance. The low really intensifies off of the DelMarVa this run.
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The 0z GFS then has a follow up smaller snow event a few days later to tack on a few more inches of snow.
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Lol, I really want to believe this 0z GFS for early next week.
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Thanks for the detailed post. I have a good feeling that this place will be very busy in the coming weeks with all of the potential on the table.
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My main focus for now is trying to get this pattern change off to a nice start if the 12th to 14th period can work out.
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I’ve seen the ensembles & just posted them. I see nothing but exactly what we should be rooting for if you like Winter Storm chances in February. This is a beautiful pattern on the way & there has been no can kicking. All we do now is wait for the specific opportunities.
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12z Canadian ensemble day 8 & 16
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12z EPS day 8 & day 15
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I put 0% faith in the GFS Op beyond 10 days. All other guidance has none of this….
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Lol, I was being extremely sarcastic. I’m all in for a great few weeks of Winter coming up.
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I’m sure the 366 hour GFS Op is right & all of the ensembles are wrong…. It’s over…lol!
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Right on time… But let’s hope it’s right… We’ll see what the spinning wheel says at 0z.
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SOI continues to tank. Today’s -36 is the largest single day contribution yet.
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25 for my low here in Marysville with frost.
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Good point, lots of upside potential, but the answer will probably be in between. Either way, we should have lots of tracking in our future…wins & losses in our backyards are to be determined during the next several weeks.
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The ensembles All continue to have a Great looks at the end of their 15/16 day runs. Big game hunting season is underway.
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Here is the 0z EPS for early next week. Literally everything is on the table. Look at the various low locations at just this one time stamp. Here is the best precip panel for the period & the snow over those few days.
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Who knows, literally everything is on the table from cutter, slider, to perfect track snowstorm. It might be 2 light events or 1 stronger event…no model has figured out this period yet.
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I agree…All of the models are still trying to figure out the 12th to 14th. Pattern changes can really throw models out of whack. Add in development of blocking, & the models really go off of the rails. For example, look at the Euro from 22z yesterday with a low in Ohio. The Euro 0z run for the exact same time has a low sliding off of the Carolina coast that misses us. Bottom line, this will take a few days to resolve.
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6z GFS has a different evolution for this period but still snows on us to a lesser extent than 0z, but on the 14th.
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I fell asleep early last night & missed this 0z coastal storm on the GFS for the 13th.
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It’s a shame, hopefully he can be back towards the end of the season for the playoffs.
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Disclaimer: These 15/16 day ensemble maps are just being shown to show a trend & to just be a tool to monitor pattern potential… Anyway, today is the first time since the last snowstorm on January 20th that each of the 3 ensembles have shown the “blue” pushing this far south into northern MD.
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Lol, same here. I’m hoping the threat on the 12th to 14th gets us some frozen to track. As @psuhoffman said recently, the H5 looks that we are seeing don’t come around often. Many times there are several years in between when we get these kind of pattern chances. The long range guidance was consistently showing the potential & now the ensembles have the pattern progression beginning on the 12th.
