Blizzard of 93

The ensembles are locking in on this pattern change being real & hopefully they deliver snowy ground truth from mid month onward.

Lol, This is obviously a Miller B on the Op. You had responded to my post on the ensembles look at hour 294 with your comment on the Op run, hence the confusion.

The 6z GEFS is only out to hour 348 on WB right now….but it has clearly continued to develop into a great look a few days after the 294 hour maps posted above.

Here is the end of the EPS at hour 360 & the Canadian ensemble at hour 384….the good looks have developed into very good looks…

The main point of my post is that ALL 3 ensembles show the pattern changing UNDER 300 hours- no more extrapolating 384 maps & extended ensemble products. This is the BEGINNING of the the pattern change at hour 294……….

The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles.

The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles.

6z GFS says Happy Valentine’s Day to CTP.

We are going to more than make up for this lost time. Many Winters that we remember as good seasons had long breaks in the action in peak climo.

Great post! It has been good to see the SOI finally tank this week. The MJO is heading towards the favorable phases. Everything is lining up for a potential great run from mid February to at least early March. I agree, patience will be needed, but it’s good to see no can kicking on the ensembles for the last few days. I also like the agreement between all 3 global ensembles on the great looking pattern once we get to around the 13th & beyond.

The 0z global ensembles all continue the good pattern change by the 13th/14th.

I’m resting up for what lies ahead… The ensembles today are loading up with potential for mid February.

Lol, I’m not posting the snow map, but I’ll post the general map the GFS shows. This GFS run certainly made my lunch break much better. The upcoming pattern should produce storms & rumors of storms from around the 13th & beyond.

All 3 ensembles now have the pattern change well underway by February 14th.

This storm is literally throwing the models into loops.

If this 18z GEFS look is legit…

The 12z EPS is on board with the party starting on the 13th at the end of its 15 day run & the Canadian ensemble is on board as well with the good look as well. Better tracking days should be ahead.

The 18z GEFS is really ready to party beginning by the 14th.

6z GEFS kicks the trough out of the SW & 0z Canadian ensemble has the trough fully in the east by day 16. Both have decent ridging on the west coast up into Alaska.

Why am I looking forward to the NAM to track this mid week clipper for a chance at a dusting to an inch? Sick hobby… lol!

I wasn’t necessarily referring to you, but this is not the time to get nervous in my opinion based on most guidance for February. I also disagree that this Winter has been bad so far. December was bad with minimal snow for most outside of a car topper or 2 in early December. January produced 3 plowable snowstorms for many of us in here. MDT is going to finish just above normal snow for January even if nothing more is measured in the last few days of the month. February & March will tell the final story of the Winter, but we still have the chance to make this a really good snow year. A 3 or 4 week snowy period could get it done.

Good points…. However, those that “punt” say it definitively… Why the heck is it wrong to be positive & confident definitively? I agree, only time will tell how it plays out in the next 2 months.

Lol, what can I can…I’m confident…. I guess it’s just easier to say “punt” just to protect “feelings”..? lol… All guidance, most respected posters & pro forecasters say it’s coming… I’m not conjuring this up….

The Weeklies are run off of the previous day’s 0z run…. The bottom line is the progression continues to push the trough out of the southwest in that time period. The Weeklies are not kicking the can whatsoever for days on end.