Blizzard of 93

The Op runs that I posted are starting to show that Winter is still here & coming back to hopefully produce Winter Storm chances again by mid month.

MDT currently sitting at 27 degrees.

The 6z GFS has a storm getting to the coast on the 16th with a CTP snow chance.

The 0z Euro this run has a Winter Storm chance on the 13th with a snowstorm for northern PA & a mix changing to snow for southern PA as the low transfers to the coast.

@MAG5035 what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern change potential?

The 12z EPS teleconnections are all screaming that the advertised pattern is on track as we get towards day 10. Every index is forecast to go right where we want them.

I’m not worried about day 15 or 16 caving with the good look that it is showing as I described above. Snow maps will respond once a specific threat is identified.

Here is the 18z GEFS 96 hour snow for day 11 to 15. Not bad at all for this range over a four day period.

We can score big snow until around March 20th or so even in the LSV. It just happened in 2018. I’ve been doing this for a few decades as well. This is the kind of pattern look that we dream of & we can go several years without this kind of pattern opportunity. This upcoming period has the chance to be our best sustained good Winter storm window since at least March of 2018.

Long way to go, heck the Euro Op & Canadian Op are barely in 10 day range yet for the beginning of the pattern change on the 13th. The blocking that is developing will also throw models into fits as well.

As a few posters in the Mid Atlantic thread have said recently, we need to be patient. This upcoming pattern should produce, but some people probably will lose patience & sadly not make it…

Furthermore, the ever so slight ridging in the Midwest at hour 384 on the 18z GEFS looks to be in response to the massive strong Greenland block that is backing to west. The STJ continues to push further to the east over the Gulf states. You also still have troughing in the 50/50 space at hour 384. This look, if it would hold, would still have plenty of good going for it. Also, temps at 384 are still cold in the east. Besides this, I think we will have a chance to score before day 16, & as I posted a little earlier, the good pattern should provide chances into early March.

I’m not worried about day 16 in the 18z GEFS when the day 13 map looks like this…

Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5.

Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5.

Good to see the precip juicing up on the Euro Weeklies for when the good pattern sets in for weeks 3, 4 & 5.

I see what you mean, but I think we will be good with the strong blocking up top, the STJ under cutting, & the 50/50 showing nicely at range. It’s just a matter of time until we get hit with a Winter Storm in my opinion & the opinion of lots of posters & pros.

I am so pumped for the upcoming pattern change. It’s great to see @psuhoffman so confident as well.

The SOI has been crashing for the last week, especially the last few days. This should help as we approach the better pattern towards mid month.

He’s going to have a heck of a busted forecast this year…. Lol, I hope they have a nice place for Phil to live because the wild groundhogs will be likely buried in snow later this month…

All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means.

All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means.

Here is the second chance on the 6z GFS a couple of days later on the 15th. Happy Friday!

The 6z GFS has 2 chances for us to score snow during the pattern transition week. Here is the first chance this run on the 13th.

Yes indeed & still 2 months to score.