Blizzard of 93

No one last November thought that MDT would get over 8 inches of snow with that storm. It was supposed to be 2-4 with a changeover. 6 hours of heavy snow produced the 8 inches before the changeover in the early evening. I certainly don’t think anyone has a chance of getting near 8 inches of snow on Monday. However, If the initial precip comes in a heavy shield, some areas could end up with closer to 4 inches with the storm on Monday. Each model run is trending colder. There is no deepening low heading for Detroit with this event that would overwhelm us with a warm air push aloft or at the surface. We need to watch the development of the front running precip shield.

I agree, this looks like a typical 2-4 inch snow to ice event, maybe ending as a little rain. This type of event is nice because the precip shield is already well established to our west & we already have cold enough air in place. We don’t need to rely on a wave on a front or an upper low to try to produce with this storm on Monday

The 0z Euro improved our chances of getting a few inches of snow on Monday followed by a prolonged period of ice. It still shows surface temperatures at 32 or below for even the LSV through midnight late Monday night. I’m really not a fan of ice, but I don’t mind it as much when it tops a few inches of snow.

Ha! Yes, “Marysville Mauler” would be a great snowstorm name! Of course I would love for all of CTP, even including all Lancaster to cash in as well. The 18z GEFS still supports the idea of a coastal storm next Sunday into Monday. It would be nice to get some other model support beyond the Op GFS showing a good coastal every other run. We have a long way to go, but it sure would be a great way to kick off Christmas week with a coastal snowstorm. One can dream a little bit, especially this time of year... Here is the 18z GEFS. There are several good hits among the ensemble members. The mean storm position is in a great spot for us. Let’s see what what the 0z runs bring tonight.

The 18z Euro keeps the @Itstrainingtime theory alive as well. Monday looks like we have a few hours of snow & most of us get 2-3 inches. Then we change to a prolonged period of mixed sleet & freezing rain. Then by later Monday evening we might go over to plain rain.

I’m dreaming of a blizzard a few days before Christmas & the 6z GFS delivered for CTP !

Yes, many late nights on the way. This pattern is loaded with potential for snow.

November ended up just over 2 degrees BELOW normal at MDT... Here you go courtesy of CTP. THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 AVG. MAXIMUM 50.9 53.1 -2.2 48.0 AVG. MINIMUM 32.5 35.1 -2.6 35.3 MEAN 41.7 44.1 -2.4 41.7

Yes, according to the 0z Euro. Snow to ice for most of us.

Now, it’s on to our next winter storm threat on Monday night & Tuesday. The Euro & Canadian agree on the storm tracking toward the Ohio Valley & then transferring just under our region, bringing a snow to mix scenario. The GFS is on its own with cutting the storm well to our west bringing mostly rain. I would be happy with a solid 3 to 6 inch thump of snow & then a changeover to a mix. I have had enough of tracking car toppers & light coatings. The appetizers have been nice for some of us, but now I’m ready to track a legit solid region wide event to begin our main course!

That makes sense, the line certainly wasn’t far from MDT as I drove to work this morning. Then I went to Manheim this afternoon for work, & there was still over an inch on some shaded surfaces.

Yes, same thing at my house in Marysville. I saw a few flakes overnight, but nothing that accumulated anywhere. In Middletown, right across the street from MDT, the car tops all had a light coating of snow as of 8. It went from nothing to a very light dusting on some surfaces as soon as I got off of the highway in Highspire.

MDT recorded a Trace for this event. I happen to work less than 1 mile from MDT & the car tops in my lot still had a light coating of snow on them as of 8 am. I thought they might record a couple of tenths of snow, but clearly they just mailed in a T for the event.

I just took a look at the rest of the 18z GFS. You are right about no shortage of opportunities for winter storms. This storm a few days before Christmas, if it verified, would certainly get everyone feeling very Merry!

The 12z Euro was very interesting again for next Tuesday into Wednesday.

I like the look of the 18z GFS for tonight for the LSV. There is a massive temperature contrast between only a few hundred miles. Temps in western PA are in the low 30’s while temperatures are still holding near 60 along the NJ to VA coast. The front is taking its time & there is a ton of precip back well to our south & west that will move northeast towards our region as temps drop tonight.

Here is more from CTP this morning: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Temps continue to fall all night. The initial 40s over the Lower Susq will take much if not all night to dip near freezing. A wave rolling up the old front and strong jet circulation/forcing will touch off a band of perhaps heavy snow over the SE during the second half of the night. Many places in the major metro areas of the SE (Harrisburg, Lancaster and York) may not even get below freezing by sunrise Wed. The outlying areas, esp in the higher elevations nearby will get cold enough for snow to accumulate everywhere. The snow will have trouble sticking at first, and may only make the roads wet. But, the intensity of the snow could be enough to make it stick to the roads. Accumulations will be generally an inch with 2 inches possible on the high ground. The 2" amounts do not look widespread, so we will not issue an advy at this point. But, the dayshift will have plenty of time to get the word out if it looks like more snow will stick. Overall, we have held the snow amounts as is for this package. The snow should be ending at sunrise in Lancaster, and may be over in Harrisburg and York an hour or two before sunrise. Thus, the morning commute will be largely snow- free, but may catch the early birds.

CTP posted this for the LSV for tonight into early tomorrow. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 306 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 PAZ036-057>059-063>066-110815- Franklin-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 306 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. . DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Rain will turn to snow after midnight. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible by sunrise Wednesday. The snow will stick mainly on the grass.

Yes, for next Tuesday, the 0z Euro has a winter storm with significant snow for all of CTP. Long way to go, but the 0z runs tonight say that we will be very busy in here this week tracking this potential !

The 0z GFS looks good as well for Next Tuesday into Wednesday with a storm tracking to our southeast that brings some mixed precip that changes to potentially good amount of snow as depicted this run. We are Still a week out, but’s it’s nice to see some early agreement between the Euro & GFS on the potential for next week.

The GFS has been consistent for the last several runs with the placement of the snow zone & it continued at 0z.

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning: Boundary layer temps slip to critical changeover levels for wet snow beginning in the early evening Tuesday across the Central Mtns and Mid Susq Valley, then across our SE zones around 03-05Z Wednesday. A second, post-frontal period of rain Tuesday afternoon/evening will likely change to a several to 6-8 hour period of light to moderate wet snow with 1-3 inches of accumulation looking increasingly likely SE of a KAOO to KSEG and KMPO line with the highest amounts occurring across the ridges. Could see a few higher amounts on the ridges. Depending on the temperature and snowfall rates, some travel impacts are possible for the morning commute to work and school Wednesday.

The 6z GFS still looks good for our snow opportunity on Wednesday morning.

It’s a follow up wave on a cold front. i think most of us in the LSV will like tonight’s 0z GFS. The Kuchera ratio map is even better.

I think that the LSV is in a good spot for this event. Our snow totals will depend on the track & timing of the follow up wave. Most models for the last few days have consistently kept us in the game.