Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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Didn’t you say that you just had 2 inches last Saturday? Lol, Your snow mowing should have allowed that to cover your yard!
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Many of us just had a Warning level event last Saturday. We still have a Winter storm chance on Tuesday & Friday this week. The longer range for late January & February looks promising on most guidance.
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18z RGEM looked promising & the 18z ICON was a decent hit. This is the first GFS run that has been a whiff, let’s see what 0z brings.
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The potential for a high end event for Tuesday may be slipping away, but I think a solid Advisory level event of 2 to 4 or so is very much still on the table.
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It’s not time for towel throwing yet. On to 0z…
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18z RGEM I believe would have been a decent hit for us. It looks similar to the end of the 12z Canadian which hit us the best at 12z today.
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Did he get banned because of last week?
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18z NBM blend still solid for Tuesday.
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Good post by @psuhoffman on late January & beyond… “The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And it’s actually what the guidance suggests. “
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
Blizzard of 93 replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z EPS brought the “blue” back west to the eastern shore & NE MD. 6z barely had the blue on coastal NJ.
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The 12z EPS definitely ticked back west & now gets “blue” back into parts of Lancaster. The 6z run barely had blue on the coast of NJ.
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Thanks, but this will be a cold storm with good ratios, so I don’t think depth maps will be ideal for this type of event.
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In reviewing my handbook…. I’ll take the Canadian for Tuesday & the Euro for next Friday!
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Yes, Euro is onboard for the 19/20th. Lots of upside potential with this one due to the pattern. Euro agrees with GFS & Canadian on this threat. Snow on snow chance next week. Snow map is just for the late week 20th storm.
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Indeed, Euro was basically nothing near us at 0z to now up to 2 inches in parts of the LSV. Good baby step towards other guidance.
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Thanks & do you have the Ukie Kuchera map?
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Step back from last night’s 0z, but with Kuchera ratio, we still could have Warning level snow in the LSV.
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Agreed & 2 legit threats to track within the next week. Lots of upside potential as well for the 19th with the pattern at the time & Plenty of cold available. Here are the GFS & Canadian for the 19th chance for those that have not seen it yet.
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Canadian stepped Up from 0z last night & GFS stepped back a bit from 0/6z. Compromise would get Warning level snow to the LSV.
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Another slight bump up in snow on the 12z NBM blend of models in the LSV. Lancaster is now at 5 inches this run.
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Agreed, hopefully we see the Euro come around by tonight, but it’s encouraging to see all other guidance have a good storm at this range. Quick general recap of 0z/6z runs: Euro - 0z Whiff ICON - moderate snow hit at 6z Canadian - 0z inside runner with mixing GFS - Warning level snow at 6z/0z Ukie- 0z Warning snow- high end LSV Based on the above, the GFS is showing the middle ground at this time.
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Further out in time on the 19th, the 0z Euro & Canadian have yet another Winter storm chance to track. This is the period that many good posters & pro Mets have been salivating over for some time as the peak of the pattern potential before we relax/reload.
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Indeed, but the better looks have shown this general setup a day or 2 out. These extrapolating eyes liked where it was heading.
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Thanks, good to see the “finger” of precip aimed right at us.
