Blizzard of 93

The 0z Euro & 6z NAM continued to up the ante for CTP! Yes, the Euro map is Kuchera ratio!

The GFS & Canadian are looking good for winter weather on Thursday! Here is the 0z GFS with both the standard 10-1 ratio map, which is highly unlikely, & also the Kuchera ratio GFS, which is more realistic. The 0z Canadian is just a standard 10-1 ratio, but it agrees with the favorable storm track for CTP & has the same frozen precip coverage as the GFS tonight.

Where is everyone?!? This is our first legit chance at frozen precip. For now, I’ll just reply to my own post! The 0z NAM came in colder & more favorable for frozen for the LSV & all of CTP. Even if we cut those amounts in half or more, I think we could all live with that to get things started this season.

Just about every model trended colder today with the storm later this week. Most of us should see some snow or frozen precip on Thursday. The snow maps are most likely over doing the snow totals. The track of the low looks favorable & if the timing is right, we could cash in & get on the snow board this week. Let’s see if the 0z runs tonight continue the positive trends!

The 0z GFS & Canadian like the idea of some snow for most of CTP by later this week.

The GFS & Euro are now bringing another storm up the coast on Thursday & Friday this week. There looks to be more cold air in place at the start so everyone in CTP begins with some frozen precip. The GFS takes a more favorable track for us, while the Euro runs the low just inland. Maybe it’s the good old “storm after the storm” that brings the goods to us this week?!

It was great to see the reports of winter weather yesterday from the north & west areas of CTP ! It looks like those same areas of CTP could cash in again on Monday night & Tuesday. If the low takes an ideal track & the timing is right, I could see how some of us further south & east could start or end with some flakes mixing in.

I just watched DT’s winter preview video. He has below normal temps for our region throughout the winter. He also has our region at 200% of normal snow for the season! He said this is the first time in his 20 years of doing winter forecasts that he has had our region in 200% of normal snowfall category. He thinks the pattern is set up to deliver snow to the east right through March. I would sign up for over 60 inches of snow right now if DT’s forecast delivers!

The best weather news of the day was the latest Euro seasonal forecast that was issued today. It shows a great winter pattern throughout the season. It features a ridge in the western US & a trough in the east, with signs of an active subtropical jet developing underneath.

Yes, later this week & next week should bring well below normal temps to most of the eastern half of the country. The GEFS & EPS at 12z today suggest that we get on the snow board early this year!

I’m dreaming of having this current radar show up again in December! & January, February & March !

The CTP afternoon discussion today gave a good summary of the potential coastal storm this weekend. The models of course are portraying a wide variety of storm tracks. It will be interesting to watch this storm develop over the next few days. The 18z GFS today says that a good portion of CTP gets some snow this weekend!

Let the games begin indeed! The latest Euro weeklies look fantastic from now through the end of the run through the first week of December. The trough is in the east, with a ridge in the west & higher heights up top near the pole.This run features temps below normal for the eastern half of the US for the next 6 weeks. The 46 day snow map, for what it’s worth, shows all of CTP getting on the board by the end of this run on December 3rd. It has near 3 inches of snow in the southern part of CTP & closer to 6 inches north of I-80 & near I-99. By the way, there is a chance of an interesting coastal storm the last few days of October that we need to watch !

Yes, welcome Fall !!! It sounds like the cooler weather is here to stay for the next few weeks. The step down towards winter is finally underway!

We have had just occasional light rain down here near the Harrisburg area today. i don’t think we have seen the sun since last Thursday or Friday.

I thought that you never got any precip up there ?!?!

It’s great to see the Fall thread underway! The cool temperatures this weekend are a welcome relief from the 90’s that we had to endure this past week. The rain this weekend from Gordon’s remnants, followed possibly from the impacts of Florence later next week could be a massive problem for Central PA.

Yes! I was just thinking the same thing when I saw the posts of the weather models from earlier today. I wonder if it will ever be possible to top that 30 inch storm snow total at MDT ?

I’m dreaming of this radar taking place in about 4 or 5 months....

MDT had .73 of rain overnight. It seems like we will get a few more tenths of rain the next few hours. It is only 60 degrees & it feels like October out right now.

We finally got some rain in the Harrisburg area last night. It poured for a few hours overnight. It now breezy & a little chilly out for early June.

Yes, I agree the Harrisburg area had 60 to 80 % pops for rain most of the week, but has received little rain to show for it. Thank goodness this is not winter because many of us from around the turnpike on north would need talked off of the ledge !

I have had enough of the rain this week! However, I just found myself looking at the radar, wishing that a snowstorm was incoming with the precip that is currently developing to our South that is crawling up the coast. It would be awesome to get a week of precip like this in the winter. We would be buried in snow. Ok, back to reality now ! I am looking forward to a week of sunny & dry weather with temps in the 70’s. That should not be too much to ask for in May!

It sounds like you guys got hit hard by that storm. We had a few small branches come down, but nothing too bad despite the strong wind.

Tornado warning for Harrisburg area ! I can’t remember last warning for my back yard?