Blizzard of 93

Here is the combined snow map for the Thursday & Sunday events by the end of next Sunday on the 12z GFS. Great potential this week!

The 12z GFS then has another snowstorm that rides up the coast next Sunday on Valentine’s Day for CTP! This snow map is just for the Valentine’s event!

What a great 12z GFS run for CTP for this week! First, on Tuesday, there is a chance for 1 or 2 inches of snow, mostly north of the turnpike with a weak system. Then the real fun begins Wednesday night with the start of the overrunning snow. The snow then continues at varying intensity until early Friday. This run keeps most of PA all snow for this event. The snow map is just for this event.

I pulled some maps for everyone that I’ll post soon for the events this week!

Approaching 2 inches here in Marysville. Steady snow continues. Beautiful Winter morning! It is even better knowing more snow is on the way this week!

The 0z EPS & GEFS were again very impressive for a 15 to 16 day full run. Lots of tracking again very soon!

The 0z Euro came in with slightly more of a cold press than previous runs and kept most of CTP in all snow for the Thursday into Friday event, Here is the snow map for just that period.

Moderate snow with visibility dropping in Marysville. About 1 inch on the ground. The precip on the radar appears to be moving more south to north instead of southwest to northeast. Lots of precip stretching back into southern Virginia that is heading north.

@MillvilleWx I am enjoying watching the steady snow with my coffee here in Marysville just a few miles north of Harrisburg! Please let us know your thoughts on the Lower Susquehanna Valley’s prospects to reach the higher end of your map with getting to 4 or 5 inches by the end of the event today?

Steady snow continues in Marysville, with flake size increasing as of 8:30z. About .5 of an inch is on the ground. MDT at 8am had .5 mile visibility snow!

Steady moderate snow in Marysville. All surfaces covered & the roads have caved!

In northern MD at 5am, light snow is underway at Hagerstown & Carroll County airports.

The 6z NAMS are still looking good for 3 to 4 inches of snow for most of the LSV.

The 12z EPS & GEFS snow maps are just beyond fantastic looking with the potential that these next 2 weeks hold for our region. I have NEVER seen a 2 week EPS map show 15 inches of snow over the LSV unless we had a major event arriving within the next day. There are multiple chances embedded in different windows of opportunity over the 360 hour run. Rest up now, we are going to be very busy tracking!

The telleconnections for the -AO and -NAO still support the upcoming potential pattern over the next 2 weeks.

If you want good snow, you typically don’t want the Arctic descending right on top of you. It’s much better to have it nearby in order to keep the storm track active. Otherwise, too much Arctic air & the storm track heads way too far south.

The 0z NAM keeps Harrisburg, Lancaster, Lebanon, York & Gettysburg very much in an Advisory level event tomorrow morning. Both 0z NAMS agree with the most recent CTP forecast as well.

The 18z GFS entire 16 day total snow map is just too good to not post! The 10 -1 ratio map is epic, but the Kuchera is out of this world! I think most of us would be thrilled with just half of this ! This just screams “Potential” !!!

The 18z GFS is just outstanding with all of the possible events. Here is another chance it shows Next weekend and then yet another opportunity on the 18th!

Here is the 18z EPS QPF map for the event tomorrow. It’s still good enough for an advisory event for the LSV tomorrow.

I was busy the last few minutes pulling maps from the 18z GFS. The snow opportunities over the next 2 weeks are lining up! It’s quite a long line of chances... The first major chance begins Wednesday night with overrunning snow breaking out over CTP which continues at varying intensities until Friday. The Euro and Canadian today had most of CTP changing over to a long period of mixed precip after several inches of snow. The 18z GFS came in with more of a cold press, so it kept CTP in mostly all snow for the duration of the event. It will all depend on where the boundary sets up to determine if we stay all snow or change to a mix on Thursday into Friday. Here is the 18z GFS for the beginning of the event Wednesday night and then towards the end of the storm on Friday. The snow map is just for this late week event.

The 18z Euro still looks good for an advisory event for the LSV tomorrow.

Just like last week when you said on the day of the storm that the most anyone would get would be 3 to 6.... and then you got over 12!?!!

The 12z Euro still looks good for the LSV to get 3 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow according to this run. I am riding the historically great old school combo of the NAM & Euro for tomorrow.

I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow. Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s. I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast. I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow.