Blizzard of 93

The EPS at 0z improved very much from the 12z run yesterday. The mean snow amount & the low locations of most of the EPS ensemble members improved as well. We are still very much in the game with 6 days still to go !

The 0z Euro joined the party & brought the goods to the LSV. With this low position & track, I think precip would be heavier & even more expansive further back into CTP. I think most of the LSV crew here would be happy with this current outcome!

Yes! It is perfect. It’s like I got to draw the map! The placement of the low off of the Delmarva coast is ideal. If only we could lock this in now!

Yes, I would rather take our chances with this kind of set up instead of dealing with a coastal storm that crushes I-95 but then puts us on the fringes.

I think most of us in CTP could live with this 18z GFS result next weekend! The track is far from settled, but I like where we sit right now. On to the 0z runs tonight !

The 12z EPS took a good step up in snow amounts for next weekend’s snow potential, especially for the LSV. There are several EPS ensemble members that provide great snow hits for CTP, with the best possible jackpot area being the southern half of PA. There are still a cluster of EPS ensemble members showing nothing for our region, & some still have minimal amounts that probably reflect cutter or inland storm tracks. The Ops will continue to shift around the next few days. The potential is certainly there for a memorable Early December snow storm for CTP.

The 6z GFS for next weekend’s potential snow storm looks a lot like the great 2009 December storm that hit a week or so before Christmas! This is the Kuchera ratio snow map from the 6z GFS. This should be a great week of tracking!

The 0z Euro, GFS, & new GFS all looked good for snow for CTP for Next Saturday!

Next week looks very interesting for the possibility of 2 snow events. The first one could bring a low end snow event around Tuesday or Wednesday. There is the chance of a moderate to high end snow event next weekend. The 0z Euro & EPS are becoming more interested in these events with each run!

The Canadian at 12z likes the idea of a light snow event for this Friday! Maybe for once it will be right?!

The GEFS has been ramping up snow amounts in the day 10 to day 15 period. We should also keep an eye on this coming Friday for the chance of a light snow or mix event. The GFS & Euro have been hinting at this the last couple of days.

CTP posted a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain for tomorrow am for most of CTP from roughly the Susquehanna River & west of there.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I’m thankful for the great group that we have here! I’m also thankful for the 8.8 inch snow surplus that we already have in the bank this year!

The longer range pattern for the first week of December continues to look very interesting for winter storm potential! The GEFS & EPS have been increasing their snow totals the last few runs, with most of the snow arriving the first week of December.

CTP is now starting to mention that on Saturday am, the precip could begin as a wintery mix, before changing over to rain by Saturday afternoon. It sounds like our northern crew needs to watch out for snow squalls as the front approaches later today.

Yes, the northern crew has the best chance, but I wouldn’t rule out some light snow for the LSV as well by Tuesday am. Thanksgiving & Friday am look frigid ! Then, towards the end of the month into the first week of December we have a good chance for more winter storms. The pattern has great potential for snow chances!

The Euro at 0z is still insisting that we get a few more inches of snow by Friday morning.

Both 0z NAMs like the idea of a few more inches of snow tonight for most of us.

MDT at the 5 pm update recorded 8.3 inches of snow today! Great start to the season!

How are things looking for the second possible second round of snow tonight ?

Just measured 6 inches in Marysville with steady moderate snow. i just can’t get over how powdery the snow is for this time of year! It is tough to even make a snow ball right now. Awesome storm! Great start to the season!

5 inches currently in Marysville. Ripping snow with half mile visibility! The Euro lead the way in this one!

Dew point is 18. We will be fine!

Thanks man ! It will be great to just get our first winter storm in the books today at such an early date in the season!

Yes, this is a bonus indeed! I enjoy our group & all of the personalities! CTP bumped up the Warning snow amounts to 3-5 inches in the Harrisburg area & surrounding counties.