Blizzard of 93

@MAG5035 We were on the same page with our CTP zone posts within a minute of each other!

CTP is ramping up the zone forecasts for Wednesday night into Friday morning. Here is the current forecast for Harrisburg. Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 2pm, then snow and sleet. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Night Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then rain or freezing rain between 1am and 5am, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely after 5am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow likely before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Lol...send the train North about 100 miles & then we will be Back in the jackpot that is South of DC !

The 18z Para GFS is on board the snow train as well ... Choo .... Choo!!!

I didn’t see the 12z Euro & 12z EPS posted from earlier... so here they are...

Here is the 18z GFS 10-1 ratio map just for this storm on Thursday into Friday.

Yes! Let’s go Euro in an hour!

The 12z Canadian is on board too for Thursday.

Bingo! Exactly... Here are the snow maps just for the Thursday event for the 12z GFS, GFS Para & GEFS. Lots of room to maneuver in any direction. I like where we are sitting now.

I do indeed... just having some fun and posting model output to get the whole story out there for the snow & temps part of the event on Thursday. I am good... we are well above normal snow for the date. I am just not wired to worry...

I don’t know what else to post... some of you guys would still be worried on precip type if we were 5 degrees with -20 at 850s ... Lol !

After all of that, here is 1 snow map to show on the 6z GFS that most of the LSV snow has already occurred by 18z Thursday. Yes, this map ends at 18z Thursday from the 6z GFS. I don’t care what happens after this if I have over 7 inches of snow on the ground...

Here are the 6z GFS surface precip panels for 12z & 18z Thursday. The majority of the snow thump has already happened by 18z Thursday in the LSV.

Here are the 6z GFS surface & 850 temps at 18z Thursday. Still plenty cold even south of the MD line.

Here are Better maps of the good old 6z GFS that you thought didn’t look so good. Here are the 12z Thursday surface & 850 temps

Again... 18z is after a good chunk of the snow thump already moves through!

This looks Plenty cold leading in to the good precip Thursday am on the 6z EPS More “non snow maps” It sure looks like cold to....well... anyone.

@pasnownut you are looking at 0z Friday which is well after the front end snow thump damage is done Thursday am into afternoon, Most models do show us mixing Thursday PM I agree, we should mix, but not until After we get a good snow thump!

@pasnownut Here are more “non snow maps” just for you! I present the 6z Euro good sir... High pressure placement is even better & 850 temps are even colder as the good precip moves in.

Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed in Lancaster County!

This set up looks very good for a front end thump of snow on Thursday even looking at the old GFS. A large area of High pressure to the north, a moisture laden storm developing well to the south and good 850 temps extending deep into central VA.

@pasnownut the difference is the Arctic air gets to move in by Wednesday after this early week storm to set the stage for better CAD for Thursday. We have a good amount of room to maneuver. Heck the Para right now is targeting South of the MD line with the best snow. Right now there is a major model Op & Ensemble consensus for a solid front end thump of snow on Thursday. This is 3 days out, not 3 weeks!

The ensembles are continuing to ramp up snow amounts for Thursday. Here is the 6z GEFS & 0z EPS . The trends are getting Better as the event approaches. We are only 3 days out!

The 6z GFS is impressive as well and it gives room for adjustments in either direction.

The 0z Euro was great with the front end thump of snow for the LSV on Thursday. This run keeps the LSV as snow until mid afternoon Thursday before the mixing gets underway in the southern tier. Here is the 4pm Thursday panel. The snow map is nice because it gives us room for a north shift to not hurt too much at this range in terms of snow totals.