Blizzard of 93

I had a NOAA weather radio. Every day in the winter after school, I could not wait until they updated the forecast in the late afternoon. The best times took place when the alerts for a “Winter Storm Warning” were broadcast. I would listen to it over & over ! In the 80’s & 90’s,in the days before the internet, all that we had for weather news was the weather radio, local TV weather, The Weather Channel & Weather World on PBS. I would try to flip around during the 6pm or 11pm TV news to catch every forecast possible during winter!

Great post MAG ! I think that in a few weeks our snowless December will be a distant memory ! The Euro weeklies released today look outstanding in terms of good winter storm pattern potential from mid January through the end of the run in early February. I think there will even be snow chances in the next week or so, even before the advertised “good” pattern arrives.

The 18z GEFS also delivered some Christmas cheer with its best run in a long time. The mean snow amount this run for the LSV is 5 to 6 inches. Every GEFS ensemble member, except for 1, brings at least a few inches of snow to CTP through the end of the 16 day run. Ensemble Member E8 would be nice !

The 12z EPS run today was the best in the last couple of days. We should have a few snow opportunities starting with this weekend & continuing through the first week of January. About 35 of the 50 EPS ensemble members brought at least a couple of inches of snow to CTP. There were several members that were heavy hitters. We should have a fun week of tracking!

I got the Kocin-Uccellini -KU - Northeast Snowstorm books for Christmas!!! I have wanted these for years ! Hopefully we get another 1 or 3 legendary storms to add to the book this year !

All I want for Christmas is for this 0z Euro Control run from last night to verify!

Merry Christmas to all !

Every good seasonal model & most long range pro forecasters have very much above average snow & cold for the rest of this season.

Very Light flurries now in Marysville !

The 12z GFS delivered 2 nice Christmas presents with snow events for CTP for this Sunday & again on New Year’s Day into the 2nd day of January. The maps below show the 2 events & then the first storm individual total & also the 2 event combined total.

Thanks to the 8.8 inches of snow in November at MDT, Harrisburg is above normal snow for the season to date. According to CTP’s daily summary, MDT only averages 4.1 inches of snow through December 23rd. Even if it doesn’t snow until the first week of January & beyond, Harrisburg will still be in good shape to have another chance at an above average snowfall season.

If we don’t score the first week of January, the potential pattern should get even better toward mid January & onward according to just about every long range & seasonal model. Anyway, We should have chances at snow by the first week of January.

The first half of December was below normal. The second half of November was way below normal.

I don’t think it will take a miracle.... The 12z Euro does show the snow north of the LSV, however the precip max again is over the LSV to the Lehigh Valley. Most of the precip falls after dark into 850 temperature air of less than -3. I think some of us could see the car tops & grassy surfaces covered.

The differences between CTP & Mt. Holly are a little interesting along the border of the forecast offices.

For tonight’s Christmas Eve Eve event, The 12z NAM ‘s brought better precip down to the I-81 corridor of the LSV & were also are slightly colder than recent runs.

The latest GEFS run today continues to look good for snow chances for CTP. Most of the snow on this run arrives between New Year’s Eve & the first week of January.

Thanks for getting this started! Here is some good news to start this thread. The 12z GFS gives us 2 snow storms. The first one arrives for New Year’s Eve & drops 3-4 inches of snow for CTP. The second one arrives on January 2nd & puts down another 2 or 3 inches of snow. This would be a great way to ring in the New Year!

We need to change the momentum in here. The thread title still says “ Fall “ , but we are now in winter ! Maybe that will get things going in here & get @pasnownut to start getting more excited when I post snow maps overnight ?

The period from New Year’s weekend to the first week of January look to be very active with a few winter storm chances. The general theme looks to be cold air pushing the boundary south of PA, with Lows then riding up the coast that deliver the snow to CTP. The Euro & GFS Ops & the ensembles are saying that we will be very busy here next week! All that I want for Christmas is for this Euro Control run to verily!

The 0z NAM does like the idea of a little early Christmas Eve snow !

The Euro weeklies look amazing beginning in early January! Game on !!!

Even if we miss out on a little Christmas snow, the GEFS & EPS are looking promising in the day 10-15 window as we end 2018 & begin the new year. Snow amounts Have been increasing on the last few runs of each.

Yes indeed ! The Euro has now shown this for a few model runs in a row, with the bullseye shifting north & south. I think most of would take this & run !

We have a chance at some Christmas snow & everyone is here talking about Piedmont !