Blizzard of 93

Here is the 0z GEFS. Very nice mean low track from the DelMarVa to Southern NJ coast.

The major ALEET is here from DT tonight!

Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in. If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control! If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up!

@MAG5035 looks to be the winner this run!

@canderson Check this wind on the 0z GFS Wind speed & gusts! Just imagine Front St. tree damage!

0z GFS Snow map for most of CTP is similar to 18z Kuchera & 10-1 are similar. Harrisburg area is around 8 inches of snow again this run.

Wrap around light snow still ongoing at 18z Monday early afternoon.

By Monday morning the low is over Long Island with wrap around back into most of CTP.

Indeed as well as the LSV

How much for Coffin Rock?

The 0z ICON was a very nice snow hit for most of us.

This 100%

Yes, the track was in line with other models from today. Long way to go…. On to the ICON?

Here is the CTP current forecast discussion on this storm: LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Focus Sunday turns to the potential high impact and widespread Winter Storm, whose surface reflection will be moving NE up along the I-95 corridor Sunday into early Monday. Initially P-type should be all snow and last for at least the first half of the even, even across the SE half of the state, where minor changes in the storm track could equate to major differences in precip types and snow accum. Latest guidance suggests a more western track, with WPC sfc prog for 12Z Monday putting sfc low just northwest of KMDT. This would mean a mix and or changeover from snow over a good part of central PA. Highest confidence for a plowable and high impact snowfall exists across the Central and Western Mtns ATTM, however, this doesn`t rule out the potential for the heaviest snow to occur near the I-81 corridor. Phasing of the initial split flow and significant northern and slightly lagging nrn stream energy is handled quite well with respect to timing and location by GFS and EC along with their ensembles. We increased pops 80-95 percent for the meat of the storm Sunday night. Main message is to pay attention to forecasts over the next several days as/if confidence in details emerges. This certainly has the makings of the largest storm of the winter thus far, but much can change over the next 5 days.

Where the heck is @paweather ? Major storm on the way & nothing from him?

Here was the 18z GEFS ensemble in case it wasn’t posted earlier.

Who know…spin the Wheel of the NAM and see what you get? I think the NAM does much better under 48 hours…but sometimes it’s 4.8 hours out until it gets a clue.

Many of the great storms mix at the height or end of the storm. Both of our major 1 foot snow storms last year had mixing for a few hours. It helps with snow preservation in the long run!

It a still lightly snowing over most of PA at the end of the 90 hour 18z run, so most of us would tack on maybe another 1 or 2 inches of snow on top of these amounts.

Here is a close up CTP view of the 18z Euro snow map.

Yes, very good 18z Euro run. I love seeing the low position at the southern end of the DelMarVa peninsula. Usually that is a great position that delivers the heavy snow goods to the LSV during a solid coastal storm. Here is a close up of this panel at 10pm Sunday night.

I like this map. Very bold for them 3 to 4 days out.

Someone let @Wmsptwx know about this wind! He asked during the overnight shift and I deferred to our forum wind super expert @canderson !

The 12z Euro & GFS are making my lunch break that much better. Good to see the slight eastward progression today. Close agreement on snow between these 2 models at this time. The zig zag nature of the low as it approaches the MD/VA still looks bizarre. I still think we have time more more positive trends.

His top analog is March 2nd to 4th of 1994. That was a major interior snow storm especially towards true central PA. 16 year old Blizz got 12 inches of snow & sleet mix in Harrisburg. It was the heaviest & longest duration sleet that I experienced until February Valentine’s storm of 2007.