Blizzard of 93

Again, based on this CTP map above, why no Watch for Dauphin county?!? More snow than York and similar amounts to Adams & Cumberland! It makes no sense. Do they not realize where the capital city is located? A watch might get some folks attention?

Here is the latest from CTP. I-81 corridor right through the Harrisburg area is at 3 to 6 inches of snow on this map

Here is another view of the 6z Euro Op & ensemble.

NAM then is blasting in the warmer air into PA by 10pm

Dual lows, but NC low is the stronger of the 2 at this hour.

Me too…Saturday morning fun

I don’t have good ICON maps to do a deeper dive.

The only thing that matters to me…snow!

Exactly. The snow needs to arrive ready to put down 1 inch per hour rates right away. This is the type of storm that can do it.

The 6z ICON looks better than its last several runs. Warning level snow to Harrisburg.

Warning amounts to Harrisburg!

Not you by the way…

Some people should try to read more & post less… lol

That map is general Precip, not snow…

We won’t lose any flakes tomorrow due to initial temps or warm ground!

Meanwhile 12 degrees currently in Marysville.

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

I was just thinking in general about our rare “great” coastal storms. By the time the storm approaches our latitude, we usually already have a really good amount of snow on the ground. There is usually a lot of precip well out ahead of the low as it gains latitude up from the gulf states. My point is that we can score decent snow with this storm by the time the low reaches southern VA or the DelMarVa, even if it then goes downhill after that for us.

The front thump is the key with this regardless of the exact final track. I am all good If I have 6 inches of snow of snow on the ground, then get a few hours of sleet/freezing rain & then top of off with another dusting to an inch of left over wrap around snow.

Yes, glass half full is good. I think the HRRR that you posted is reasonable. The snow that arrives for the first roughly 6 hours should be 1 inch per hour type of snow.

CTP has fresh wording for the Watch. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 345 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-152045- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 345 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible Sunday evening into Sunday night.

The 0z ICON & GFS average out to 5 inches of snow at MDT by Monday pm. Warning level if it verifies.

Sorry, here is the 0z GFS. Still the best run for MDT since 6z today. I edited my post from a few minutes ago.

0z GFS with its best run for MDT since early this morning.

Yes! Careful… the storm is already over according to some in here…