Blizzard of 93

Here is the CTP current forecast discussion on this storm: LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Focus Sunday turns to the potential high impact and widespread Winter Storm, whose surface reflection will be moving NE up along the I-95 corridor Sunday into early Monday. Initially P-type should be all snow and last for at least the first half of the even, even across the SE half of the state, where minor changes in the storm track could equate to major differences in precip types and snow accum. Latest guidance suggests a more western track, with WPC sfc prog for 12Z Monday putting sfc low just northwest of KMDT. This would mean a mix and or changeover from snow over a good part of central PA. Highest confidence for a plowable and high impact snowfall exists across the Central and Western Mtns ATTM, however, this doesn`t rule out the potential for the heaviest snow to occur near the I-81 corridor. Phasing of the initial split flow and significant northern and slightly lagging nrn stream energy is handled quite well with respect to timing and location by GFS and EC along with their ensembles. We increased pops 80-95 percent for the meat of the storm Sunday night. Main message is to pay attention to forecasts over the next several days as/if confidence in details emerges. This certainly has the makings of the largest storm of the winter thus far, but much can change over the next 5 days.

Where the heck is @paweather ? Major storm on the way & nothing from him?

Here was the 18z GEFS ensemble in case it wasn’t posted earlier.

Who know…spin the Wheel of the NAM and see what you get? I think the NAM does much better under 48 hours…but sometimes it’s 4.8 hours out until it gets a clue.

Many of the great storms mix at the height or end of the storm. Both of our major 1 foot snow storms last year had mixing for a few hours. It helps with snow preservation in the long run!

It a still lightly snowing over most of PA at the end of the 90 hour 18z run, so most of us would tack on maybe another 1 or 2 inches of snow on top of these amounts.

Here is a close up CTP view of the 18z Euro snow map.

Yes, very good 18z Euro run. I love seeing the low position at the southern end of the DelMarVa peninsula. Usually that is a great position that delivers the heavy snow goods to the LSV during a solid coastal storm. Here is a close up of this panel at 10pm Sunday night.

I like this map. Very bold for them 3 to 4 days out.

Someone let @Wmsptwx know about this wind! He asked during the overnight shift and I deferred to our forum wind super expert @canderson !

The 12z Euro & GFS are making my lunch break that much better. Good to see the slight eastward progression today. Close agreement on snow between these 2 models at this time. The zig zag nature of the low as it approaches the MD/VA still looks bizarre. I still think we have time more more positive trends.

His top analog is March 2nd to 4th of 1994. That was a major interior snow storm especially towards true central PA. 16 year old Blizz got 12 inches of snow & sleet mix in Harrisburg. It was the heaviest & longest duration sleet that I experienced until February Valentine’s storm of 2007.

That works for me! Bring the good rates for 6 or more hours of heavy snow & then let the chips fall where they may.

As some have pointed out in here & in the the Mid Atlantic thread, the models are trying to figure out where to place the low as it stacks at our latitude.

We still have a few days to get a 50 or so mile adjustment in the Ops which would give the LSV a better chance at more snow.

The 6z GEFS is still well east of other Ops & ensembles.

Here is the 6z GFS. Slight shift east on 6z vs. 0z. Then a second low developed off of the coast of southern New England at hour 102.

Ask @canderson tomorrow?

My handbook says to just hug the model that gives me the most snow… so tonight the winner is the 0z ICON.

Here is the 0z Euro snow.

0z Euro still brings the low right into the LSV. The low this run actually passes not too far from my house on Monday morning. It still has a solid front end thump of snow for most of us.

The low should ride the boundary. The boundary is not in the middle of CTP as some of the Ops have shown over the last day.

Indeed again..

Indeed…

Yes, very slight.