Blizzard of 93

Yet somehow... MDT had LESS than a 10 to 1 ratio per my post above!

The 18z EPS also has this same basic idea of some front end snow on the wave on Friday night.

The 12z Canadian likes the idea of some front end snow on a wave early on Saturday. The models have been on & off with this idea over the last few days. The Canadian & RGEM have been on a good winning streak... maybe they can keep it going? This would get me my .3 inches & then some...!

Thanks for checking, maybe the observer took their lunch break & missed the last few tenths of snow!

They have been good this year so far... until today! I want a 20 inch month in the books... Today! @Cashtown_Coop is our only hope!

@Cashtown_Coop Please ask your friends at CTP how they only got 3.6 inches of snow out of .39 precip today that was all snow according to the 5 pm daily summary??? Yes, I understand ratios, but many surrounding reports were over 4 inches near MDT. I want 20 inches at MDT... with the 3.6, they are only sitting at 19.7 for the month...! The CTP guys seem to like you... please try to get this fixed! We still have time until the official daily summary goes in overnight! I understand this is super trivial, but I am just having some fun with this... kind of...sort of...

The RGEM nailed this storm for my yard over the last couple of days. 5 inches of snow here in Marysville today! Great over-performing event!

If sign up for the 6z RGEM for today.

Here is the bumped up Advisory from The Susquehanna on east, including Harrisburg, Lancaster & York and @Voyager ! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066-221400- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.210222T1300Z-210222T2000Z/ Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill- Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Laporte, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Snow will overspread most of the area around 9 am, then briefly fall heavily before tapering off by early afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...One inch per hour snow rates are possible around 11 am to noon.

CTP bumped up the Advisory amounts. Here is the Advisory for the counties for west of the Susquehanna. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-063- 064-221400- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.210222T1100Z-210222T1800Z/ Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Coudersport, Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Snow will overspread most of the area between 630 am and 830 am, then briefly fall heavily before tapering off by noon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...One inch per hour snow rates are possible between 9 and 11 am.

Sometimes if they wake up with no snow on the ground and “only” an Advisory amount is forecast, they send them to school and then deal with it later on. With all of the recent storms, I hope they make the right call tomorrow and don’t put anyone in a bad situation.

Great point! As you mentioned earlier, it is going to be a tough call for schools in the LSV, especially if the snow doesn’t move in until 8 or possibly 10 am for eastern areas. An early dismissal would put the busses back on the roads in the middle of the storm in the late morning to early afternoon. It will be interesting to see how this develops. It could be a bad situation for schools & commuters.

My goal for MDT tomorrow is for them to measure 3.9 inches of snow to get the February monthly total to an even 20 inches. Either way, if MDT gets 2 or 3 inches tomorrow, The seasonal total would be near 35 inches. MDT would have a great chance for a 40 inch Winter if March produces the average of 5 to 6 inches.

The models are starting to slightly juice up this storm tomorrow. The Dew points are very low for all of CTP this evening. It will be an interesting 4 to 6 hours to see how much snow we can score. Here are the 18z GFS, Para & RGEM.

The 18z NAMs are looking good for tomorrow. This should help to keep snow in the backyard for the rest of February! Rarely do we keep snow cover for an entire month, so this would be another win for this winter to me.

CTP put out another map showing the timing and impacts.

The 12z Euro is on board for tomorrow.

The 12z GFS Para has a wave Friday night into Saturday that delivers som more CTP snow. Some models have shown this Friday or Saturday possibility on & off the last few days. Maybe we will have 1 more to track before February is done? If not...We still have all of March to go!

The 12z NAM & RGEM are looking good for a nice Advisory snow event tomorrow for most of us.

Good discussion from CTP this morning. “A significant but migratory trough aloft will swing through on Monday. The sfc pattern will feature a deepening low crossing the Upper Great Lakes, pushing a front/trough through later in the day on Monday. While on arm of warm advection/flurries passes overhead tonight, a pre-frontal trough passing thru 10Z-19Z will be the main player. A good 2-4hrs of snow is likely about everywhere during that time frame. The forecasts have been solid on timing and intensity of snow with the trough, arriving before sunrise in the west and between 9-11AM in the east. The GFS continues to be faster with the system, by about 3 hrs. All is very consistent otherwise. There is some enhancement seen in the snowfall rates over the west in the morning with favorable forcing and frontogenesis, and in the east in the afternoon thanks to some instability. HREF supports some 1"+/hr rates in many spots. The QPF is impressive for a fast-moving system, with many places 0.25-0.35" for 12 hrs. The air takes a bit to moisten up overnight, esp NE. The snow will probably turn to, or at least mix with, some rain later in the day thanks to the S/SW wind and breaks after the initial surge of snow/clouds. The maxes will be in the 30s, and perhaps 40F somewhere in the SC mtn valleys. SLRs do change quite a bit thru the event dropping off as we warm on the whole. Lots of drying in the aftn over the S. However, some mixed precip could linger in the far SE. Thinking is that we will eventually need an advy for much of the area for a widespread 2-4". However, SLRs, amounts and p-type are all still in question for the south and fast movement is not helpful when looking for big SF totals. The typical snow shadow down wind of the Laurels could keep them under 2" total, let alone 3". There could even be more snow in the Lower Susq than the S-Central mtns. Thus, after collaboration with the neighboring offices, we will continue to hold off on any advys and allow the dayshift to gather more wisdom and confidence.”

CTP put this map out for tomorrow.

The 18z Euro has the snow moving in slightly earlier than previous runs and gets steady snow from Harrisburg & York on west in the LSV by 10am Monday. it then delivers 2 to 3 inches of snow to all of CTP.

I would sign up for the 18z RGEM for Monday!

@MAG5035 What do you think of the Monday snow potential?

The 12z Euro likes the idea of some Monday snow for Most of us. It falls in line with the CTP expected snow map from this morning.