Blizzard of 93

Light snow currently in Marysville with a dusting on all surfaces.

The 6z NAMs still get good snow into most of CTP.

The HRDPS has a nice swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow for the LSV.

The next run will show 3 inches by 11 am and then the next run will show partly cloudy with a high of 60 at the same time. The hourly swings on the HRRR are bizarre.

Most models put us into a range of 4 to 8 inches, so I think that is a reasonable forecast at this time.

The 0z ICON looks good for CTP. I only have it available in 10-1 ratio.

21z SREF still targets the LSV with the bullseye! I am riding the old school model train!

CTP forecast is looking good on the 12k NAM. It looks like 5 to 8 when the storm is done.

Let’s spin the wheel on the NAM to see what it decides to bring soon!

Yes, the 0z HRRR gives a solid 5 to 7 inches of snow to the LSV through Friday am.

The 18z EPS says that we are all in good shape for 5 to 6 inches in the LSV. This ensemble is only available in 10-1 ratio, so we could possibly add 1 or 2 inches of snow to this in some areas.

Radar looks great down south.

Great post! I agree... 4 to 8 inches of snow tomorrow is a great call for most of us.

Lol... sun angle talk on February 18th... It wasn’t a problem in March of 2017, 2018 or 2019...

How about the good old SREF...? It seems to look much like the CTP forecast.

I found this to be interesting from an Accuwether article this morning. "Already 73.2% of the lower 48 U.S. is covered in snow and we will build on the existing amount of snow on the ground with this next storm," Rayno said. Since snow cover began being tracked regularly in 2003, this is the highest percentage of the contiguous 48 states to be covered by snow. The old record was 70.9% on Jan. 12, 2011.“

Here is the updated CTP “Expected” snow map.

Here is the morning discussion from CTP: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Clouds continue to thicken into a mid to high level overcast sky by late evening. Attention turns to the next round of accumulating snowfall in central PA Thursday/Thursday night into Friday morning. Shortwave energy emerging from the southern Rockies out into the Plains leads to increasing warm advection downstream with moisture influx from the GOMEX. 700mb low will track northeast and cause WAA precipitation to overrun a cold wedge entrenched along the Appalachians. Model guidance trended deeper with the cold air for this cycle. This lead to a primary or dominant ptype of snow in CPA and therefore reduced/shifted icing risk farther to the southeast toward the I-95 corridor. We were keen to ride the winter storm watch on this shift, but some important call-outs would include 1) lower confidence in warning numbers for the northern portion of the watch area and 2) lower probs for wintry mix impacting areas to the southeast of I-81. Still can`t rule out a mix period Thursday night over the far southeast zones, but again the colder model trend has shifted axis of sleet/freezing rain farther southeast along the I-95 corridor. Updated storm total snow from tonight into early Friday morning shows a modest decrease/increase in numbers across the northwest/southeast portions of central PA. Max amounts are around 6-8 inches along the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. HREF and latest HRRR agree in an onset just prior to midnight over the south-central Alleghenies with potential for a "thump" of moderate-heavy snow Thursday morning as it spreads to the northeast with rates ~ 1"/hr most likely focused over the southern tier counties near the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. Another period of moderate snow looks possible Thursday evening with longer duration light snow intensity Thursday night Friday morning. Snow ends by Friday afternoon, but some lake-effect and upslope snow showers may linger over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands.

CTP freshened up the Watch a few hours ago. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 PAZ027-028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-172315- /O.EXT.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0900Z-210219T1500Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland- Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible Thursday morning. The risk of a wintry mix Thursday night has been reduced and shifted farther to the southeast toward I-95.

The 0z Euro & EPS held serve overnight.

The 0z GFS still is locked in for a CTP snow bullseye.

I’m starting to get even more intrigued by the potential Monday event. The Euro control run, for the second consecutive run, has this storm developing into a moderate snow event that is still ongoing at the end of the 144 hour run at 18z.

The 21z SREF also bullseyes southern PA.

Yes, long duration event on both NAMs. Here are the Kuchera snow maps.

The NAMs have really good snow totals for the LSV & would be even better without the sleet that mixes in the southern tier.