Blizzard of 93

That map is general Precip, not snow…

We won’t lose any flakes tomorrow due to initial temps or warm ground!

Meanwhile 12 degrees currently in Marysville.

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

I was just thinking in general about our rare “great” coastal storms. By the time the storm approaches our latitude, we usually already have a really good amount of snow on the ground. There is usually a lot of precip well out ahead of the low as it gains latitude up from the gulf states. My point is that we can score decent snow with this storm by the time the low reaches southern VA or the DelMarVa, even if it then goes downhill after that for us.

The front thump is the key with this regardless of the exact final track. I am all good If I have 6 inches of snow of snow on the ground, then get a few hours of sleet/freezing rain & then top of off with another dusting to an inch of left over wrap around snow.

Yes, glass half full is good. I think the HRRR that you posted is reasonable. The snow that arrives for the first roughly 6 hours should be 1 inch per hour type of snow.

CTP has fresh wording for the Watch. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 345 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-152045- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 345 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible Sunday evening into Sunday night.

The 0z ICON & GFS average out to 5 inches of snow at MDT by Monday pm. Warning level if it verifies.

Sorry, here is the 0z GFS. Still the best run for MDT since 6z today. I edited my post from a few minutes ago.

0z GFS with its best run for MDT since early this morning.

Yes! Careful… the storm is already over according to some in here…

Lol, just pointing out that the future is promising. (Not sure if optimistic thoughts are permitted in here anymore) Thanks cancel culture!

The silver lining is that even if this storm doesn’t deliver what we want for our yards, the pattern looks great through the end of the month to give us more chances soon.

It’s all good… As we have commented in the past, snow is a serious business around here and sometimes some us (myself included) get carried away with our snow emotions. It seems like we have tracking this 1 forever, but really the models didn’t latch onto this storm until Monday. We still have time to sort out the final details tomorrow & Sunday am.

This! Exactly! First time for everything, but this would be unprecedented with a low that tracks from the Gulf to the DelMarVa and then goes right through true Central PA.

Not the Euro

No model or forecast has won or lost anything yet. The storm is still 2 days away…

Good thing it’s the long range NAM…. It had 2 good days in January of 2016…otherwise it’s just entertainment.

Exactly…I don’t recall ever seeing that type of track after the DelMarVa as well.

This is what I’m talking about!

I think is because of the low track to the southern DelMarVa. Even it the track takes the weird path from the DelMarVa up to DC & CTP, warning level snow should already be on the ground before the track takes the modeled bad turn.

The strange & rare track from the DelMarVa then heads to DC then to near State College. I’ve never seen a coastal ever take this track in my time.

A low coming up from the south that reaches the southern DelMarVa will bring 1 inch per hour snow at least to most of CTP.

Here are some some frames from the 18z Euro.