Blizzard of 93

If it has that then the whole run needs tossed. No way anyone gets close to 50 on Monday around here.

I like his 6 inch line running right near Harrisburg.

The 18z HRRR was nice as @Bubbler86 said for the LSV for the front end thump of snow. Here is the snow map as of midnight tomorrow in the LSV when the mixing is underway. It echoes my point from this morning that the Warning criteria snow could already be on the ground before the snow changes to mix by midnight.

It doesn’t make sense, but time will tell and they will just change it while the storm is ongoing so it looks like their forecast verified! Lol!

I agree, very different set up with Watches and Warnings and the county groupings. It doesn’t make sense to me at all…

The 12z Euro control run gets 5 inches to Harrisburg.

The 12z EPS had a slight uptick in snow for Harrisburg over the last few runs.

@MAG5035 Any thoughts on the triple point look on the Euro?

12z Euro has over 4 inches at MDT with the 6 inch line to Carlisle, Newport & Chambersburg.

Here is the 12z Euro close up snow map.

Here is some more from the 12z Euro. We will need to see if future model runs show the triple point any possible impacts.

Here is the 12z Euro. I is now showing a triple point low which I have mot seen yet for this storm.

CTP might wait until tonight for Warning & Advisory announcements. They just reissued their Watch with some updated wording. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-160700- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. The greatest chance of the heavier snow amounts will be across the Central Mountains. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible Sunday evening into Sunday night.

Arctic air is still drilling into PA. Dew points are currently below zero across most of PA. Something tells me this will not be so easy to dislodge tomorrow night.

It won’t be long now for CTP

I’ll be all over it for the team Sir!

Not sure why it seems so lofty of a number considering several models not named the NAM and support from CTP? We shall see what the actual numbers say on Monday.

I think 4 to 6 inches of snow is reasonable for the Harrisburg & I-81 corridor.

These maps were issued recently by CTP. Expected & High end snow maps

Even if MDT only gets around 3 inches of snow, they will be at “normal” average snow through Monday’s date with a seasonal total near 10 inches. If MDT gets closer to the 5 or 6 inches of snow, then MDT will be a couple of inches Above normal by Monday!

The 12z ICON had another Warning level snow run for Harrisburg & York on north & west.

You are right, but their other maps & products that they currently have out don’t agree with each other, hence my frustration.

Great points

True, & it really doesn’t matter much, but some people & businesses might say, “No Watch here, no big deal” because there is no Watch despite their actual current forecast. I thought their main goal was to try to “protect life & property”?

But this is more for the Harrisburg area than what they had yesterday.