Blizzard of 93

Here are CTP’s thoughts in their am discussion: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... First wave moving off to the east and taking the light rain over the SE with it. A stronger short wave trough will move up through WV and nrn VA by morning. This will bring in a second batch of precip. By that time, almost everyone across the srn tier will be cold enough to have snow or a rain/snow mix for an hour or so before going to plain snow. Onset of snow still looks like 5-6AM for the SE, and some moderate rates (<1"/hr) are likely thru mid-morning. Keeping the forecast solid with 1-2" totals for most and a sprinkling of 3" numbers in there for the higher elevs SE of I-81. Temps across the entire CWA look like they will waggle only a couple of degrees all day long.

Radar is juicing up & back filling across south central PA, Hopefully we get a few hours of snow this morning.

CTP again reissued this at 3:35 am, so they must still be confident at this time. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-201600- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220120T1600Z/ Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of generally 1 to 2 inches. Spotty 3 inch totals will occur, mainly on hill tops. * WHERE...South Central and Southeastern Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of the snow will be just before the morning commute begins, and temperatures will fall below freezing during the morning commute. At first, the snow will melt as it hits warmer paved surfaces. This will cause freezing of any untreated wet roads.

CTP just reissued the Advisory a few minutes ago, so they seem confident. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1028 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-201130- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.220120T0700Z-220120T1600Z/ Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1028 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be falling steadily from the mid 30s at the onset of the snow to the mid and upper 20s during the peak morning commute hours. This will cause freezing of any untreated wet roads, as a result of the initial snow melting on the warmer paved surfaces.

MDT normal snow through today is 10.4 inches. Today MDT is sitting at 10.0 inches of snow. If MDT gets even 1 inch of snow tomorrow morning, they will be back above normal again for the date.

Exactly…lots of potential over the next 2 weeks.

Looks like 1-2 inches of snow over Canderson’s house!

Here is a CTP map from this evening.

Yes! Thanks, this usually means that we are going to over perform on an event when you make these doom & gloom posts! Thanks sir!

The 6z HRRR & HRDPS like a couple of inches of snow in the LSV tomorrow am.

Here is the CTP Hazardous Outlook: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 352 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 PAZ033-036-056>059-063>066-200900- Somerset-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- York-Lancaster- 352 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A light snowfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible starting late tonight. The most likely area to receive the higher end snowfall amounts would be south of I-81.

We do still have snow in our immediate future in the LSV. Here are some of CTP’s thoughts from their forecast discussion. Vertical profiles for the srn tier look like they will rapidly cool late tonight. During times of higher precip intensity, snow often overcomes the melting effects of a marginal llvl temp profile. Initial mush will go to a slightly drier snow as SLRs get into the lower/mid teens south of I-81 right around sunrise. Much of the snow is east of Harrisburg and York by the end of rush hour, but will linger in Lanc County into the late morning. The snow amounts have not changed much over the last two days. Since we are getting closer to the event, our confidence has grown in an advisory-level event for the Lower Susq (esp considering it come right in the morning rush). Much discussion internally and productive chats with WPC/LWX/PHI has resulted in passing the buck to the dayshift. There is plenty of time to hoist the flags. Will continue to mention the 1-2" (maybe 3" in the higher elevs) in the HWO and social media.

The weekend coastal chance unfortunately still looks to pass well to our southeast at this time on the overnight models.

I edited this to say Thursday morning (not afternoon) wave.

The 0z HRRR is on board for the Thursday morning wave.

I’d also take the day 9 Canadian from 12z. This pattern will produce good snow again before the month is done.

18z GFS also has a Monday night Clipper.

In the meantime, what is the potential high end snow upside of the Thursday am chance for the LSV & northern MD? A few models show 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow, but any way to further juice this up?

The Euro years ago used to be locked in once near 100 hours out. It used to win when it was on its own and other models would come around to it. Now it has become just another model. It still is a very good model, but it now seems to have more flaws just like the other models since they apparently upgraded it a few years ago.

Lol, thanks! I’m just happy that @paweather changed his logo to the Sixers. Now we just need him to try to look at that half full glass once in a while!

It’s not over, but it’s not looking good at this point. Trends have not gone our way today. At least we have the Thursday am Advisory level chance. This pattern should produce more chances.

I’d sign up for this run.

Too soon to say for sure, but the pattern supports an east coast storm. Its good to have the Euro & EPS consistent, but need more models to get onboard the storm train by tonight to give more support.

6z RGEM is on board for Thursday too.

Before we get to the weekend potential, There is growing support for the early Thursday frontal wave. Here is the 6z GFS