Blizzard of 93

A light snow shower passed through over the last hour that gave a dusting.

MDT is only 5 inches below normal through yesterdays date. Still lots of time make up ground with almost 2 full months of realistic chances to snow. Our snow results so far are frustrating, but it’s not like really good snow has been far away over the last month. CTP has just missed the jackpot in every direction. 100 miles in either direction of Harrisburg has a little more snow. It’s just been a result of storm tracks that have put us just out of the good snow zone. It’s bad luck…which means that we are due for our turn to score snow!

My temp in Marysville dropped to 32 between 7 and 8am and dropped slowly through the day to the current 29 degrees. Precip picked back up mid morning and the cars and most non treated surfaces had a light glaze of ice that slowly built throughout the day. Then mid afternoon we had a sleet shower for about 1 hour that coated all surfaces. Maybe next storm it will be our turn to cash in on good snow? We are due! Every other direction of CTP has been in the bullseye this year. Next time… it’s ours!

Dropped to 32 degrees this hour in Marysville. NW wind at 12 mph

MDT is down to 39 at 11 pm

0z GFS freezing rain & sleet.

I just turned on the Weather Channel and the ice was nasty in Memphis & Dallas.

The 0z NAM INCREASED the ice amounts for the Harrisburg area on BOTH the 12k & 3k. The 12k NAM has .45 of ice & the 3k has .47 for Harrisburg. Temps should crash by 7 am according to the 12k NAM.

I think that Pillow is a more central location for our group to meet!

lol… don’t look… just post!

Lol…where do you get your info….? Check out the 18z GFS.

Lol…and more lol… The 18z GFS strongly disagrees….

It would have been washed away today anyway! Might as well wait until temps drop towards freezing in the am.

Harrisburg Freezing rain is .34 on the 18z GFS.

18z GFS still brings in the Freezing rain to the Harrisburg area before 7am and keeps it going until early afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 402 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-040000- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0009.220204T0600Z-220204T1800Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 402 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations of less than 1 inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to a wintry mix late tonight and continue through Friday morning.

The 3k NAM has a good amount of freezing rain for CTP.

Here is the sleet on the 0z 12k NAM

HRRR is reliable approximately from 6 hours out.

They will change this approximately 20 to 30 times by Friday am.

Every event…don’t worry.. they will put something out & then change it 20 times before the event begins!

Lots of people could be put into danger on the roadways if the word does not get out properly on this ice.

Don’t tell that to @Bubbler86 ! Lol!

Here is the current CTP forecast for Harrisburg. There is no “torch” before this system. Highs in the low 40’s means that temps will not need to fall much to get back below freezing when the front moves through. Weeks of frigid temperatures and snow cover in many areas near Harrisburg will not be eliminated by 2 days of temperatures in the low 40’s. The ground temperatures will freeze again quickly once the front moves in. Wednesday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then rain. Low around 34. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Rain. High near 44. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 7 mph becoming west in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

He is a good Met and he gave a good well written post. This forecast is complicated, so let’s see what the next couple of days bring.