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Blizzard of 93

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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93

  1. Lots of people could be put into danger on the roadways if the word does not get out properly on this ice.
  2. Here is the current CTP forecast for Harrisburg. There is no “torch” before this system. Highs in the low 40’s means that temps will not need to fall much to get back below freezing when the front moves through. Weeks of frigid temperatures and snow cover in many areas near Harrisburg will not be eliminated by 2 days of temperatures in the low 40’s. The ground temperatures will freeze again quickly once the front moves in. Wednesday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then rain. Low around 34. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Rain. High near 44. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 7 mph becoming west in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  3. He is a good Met and he gave a good well written post. This forecast is complicated, so let’s see what the next couple of days bring.
  4. His audience is also mostly Lancaster, so we all need to keep that in mind as well.
  5. I liked Kyle’s post and said nothing to the contrary… I’m not sure why my response was lumped in with the @paweather response to your post?
  6. This sounds exactly like the current forecast for Harrisburg… And for the record, I can’t stand Dallas! Lol!
  7. It only takes a little bit of ice to cause major problems on the roadways.
  8. Exactly, tons of time for a shift of 50 miles. I am hoping for a couple of inches of snow to top off my ice.
  9. Do you think that there are any more trends left in the models over the next 2 days? Could the cold press a bit more & the second wave slow a little to produce more snow towards the LSV as some Euro, Ukie & GFS runs over the last few days have occasionally shown?
  10. 18z Euro still has frozen precip for most at 1pm Friday,
  11. 18z Euro is looking very icy for Friday am especially from the Harrisburg area on west & north. Hopefully this trends back into more sleet & snow over the next 2 days near the LSV. Freezing rain is the worst. Here are the 7am Friday temps & surface map with precip type.
  12. Here is the combined 2 event snow by Monday morning on the 6z GFS.
  13. The 6z GFS storm still has the Sunday storm chance as well. This run still has snow to mix for the LSV.
  14. The 6z GFS held serve for Thursday night into Friday with the switch to freezing rain, sleet & snow.
  15. Here is the 2 event Combined total on the 0z GFS through next Monday am.
  16. Here is another look at the 0z GFS for this Sunday night. It has Warning level snow to mix for the LSV.
  17. Here is the 0z GFS precip type broken down into snow, sleet & freezing rain by the end of Friday.
  18. Here are some to me stamps for our region from the 0z GFS for Thursday night into Friday showing the transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow.
  19. CTP had this posted today. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 826 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-011330- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 826 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Accumulating snow and icy mix could result in hazardous travel conditions Wednesday night through Friday.
  20. Here is the 2 event combined snow by Monday am per the 18z GFS.
  21. The 18z GFS had the follow up storm Sunday night into Monday that delivers a few more inches of snow in the LSV.
  22. The 18z Euro at the end of the 90 hour run ticked very slightly in the right direction for Friday. 12z top vs. 18z bottom
  23. At this point, the GFS has been doing very well this Winter on most storms. The Euro & Ukie both have had 18z like solutions over the last couple of days. Hopefully we get some consensus by tomorrow.
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