Blizzard of 93

The 12z Canadian was close for CTP for next weekend’s coastal chance. This run it brings a few inches of snow the the Susquehanna Valley, while heavy amounts are towards the Lehigh Valley to the east. Only 50 to 100 mile westward adjustment needed over the next 5 days to make this work for many of us.

Unfortunately the overnight models were all wide right for the coastal storm chance next weekend. Let’s see what 12z says.

Here is the 6z Euro Kuchera snow & precip for today. If CTP ratios of 18-1 come to fruition, then snow totals could produce slightly better than what the Kuchera shows.

I like the 18-1 ratio that CTP mentioned, so whoever gets into a decent band today could do well by Clipper standards.

Here is CTP forecast discussion on the Clipper today. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Focus later today remains on approaching Alberta Clipper, which is progged to track east along the Mason Dixon Line between 22Z-04Z. Typical of clippers, this system will lack significant moisture, so expect its associated shield of warm advection snow to be light. However, model time sections support fairly high snow/water ratios, with maximum lift occurring within the dendritic growth zone. Latest mean WPC snow/water ratios are near 18/1. RAP 850-700mb fgen fields, which correlate well with the heaviest snow currently falling over the midwest, indicate the corridor of steadiest snow will fall along the I-80 corridor this afternoon into early evening. Latest HREF mean qpf in this region is around 0.1 inches, supporting a band of around 2 inches of snow along I-80. Orographic enhancement is likely to result in amounts around 3 inches along the spine of the Appalachians, but don`t think coverage supports an advisory. Elsewhere, weaker forcing is indicated over the Lower Susq Valley, where POPs are significantly lower and any snow accums will likely be limited to a dusting. As for timing, near term model guidance indicates the light snow will develop first across the northwest mountains during the late morning hours, then rapidly overspread much of central Pa during the early afternoon.

Here is the CTP Expected snow for the Clipper today. Here is their forecast for Harrisburg. Today Light snow likely, mainly between 1pm and 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tonight A chance of light snow, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

The storm lasts this run for more than 24 hours….

Apparently I need to keep bumping this map until the 0z runs….

I’m just going to bump this all night.

Here are some of the maps as the low next weekend tracks up the coast. What a slow moving storm!

The @Itstrainingtime storm for next weekend is alive & well on the 18z GFS! Here is the CTP close up…Lancaster county bullseye.

Long range NAM for what it’s worth had the @pasnownut Tuesday pm storm chance.

Both NAMS get 1 to 2 inches of snow to most of CTP with the Clipper tomorrow pm.

The Euro was wide right at 12z like the other models today. Have no fear, because it has another coastal for us for February 1st.

CTP has this for the Clipper tomorrow night.

It’s a Clipper….that’s what most of them are around here…better than nothing.

The GEFS has the storm signal off of the east coast for next Saturday.

The next weekend storm is still there on the 12z GFS, but it goes off of the NC coast this run. Miller A look this run with a week to go.

The @pasnownut Tuesday pm storm looks Alive & well at the end of the NAM run for what it’s worth.

12z HRRR & NAM agree with you.

Overnight low of 3 in Marysville. Currently 6

Ensembles normally are the way to go 1 week out, but with the storm last weekend that was the inland runner, the ensembles did not do too well even up to near game time, so who knows…lol ! The last 24 hours of runs have produced all of the options from slider, to inland runner to perfect track coastal. We are in the game, and that is the main point at this range.

Here is that 6z GFS snow map through next weekend. Subtract a half inch to an inch of snow in the LSV from the Sunday Clipper, but otherwise this is for next weekend.

@pasnownut The 6z GFS is a winner for all of us. The eastern half of PA gets hit nicely with snow from a great track just off of the DelMarVa.

I understand, I’d feel the same way. We have about 1 inch compacted in the yard and some decent piles from plowed streets.