Blizzard of 93

Great post! I was just getting ready to post about it. I’ll see if I can add anything to your thoughts soon. Looks great & hopefully it gets more support at 0z tonight. This one be a very interesting & long duration event if it went like this run.

6z GFS snow vs. 0z GFS

Huge move south by the 6z GFS for Friday.

Great post and good questions. This has been a frustrating month, but it has been full of near miss opportunities. There has been Lots of tracking but little ROI so far. The inland track coastal storm a couple of weeks ago could have produced more with a better track. 2 storms missed to our south that VA & NC cashed in on. A couple of Clippers that western & northern PA got 3 or 4 inches last week could have dropped 1 or 2 inches in the LSV with a slightly better track. Then, of course this weekend’s storm could have produced a much better even glancing hit or a flush hit if we had a better track with a little blocking. I would rather track and have the frustration of missing out instead of experiencing a shut out pattern where no one scores. Onward to February & March…. Hopefully it will be the LSV’s time to win!

This Winter so far could easily be well above normal for the LSV. This month we have seen storms just miss us in every direction. MDT is only around 3 inches below normal snow for season to date. We will get our snow in February & March to get at least to normal for the season.

Do you want me to post all of the threats on the 18z GFS?

Even if the late week threat doesn’t pan out for us, the 18z GFS had several more chances for us every few days over the next 2 weeks.

I’m going to hug the model with the most snow according to my handbook! This usually works, right… lol…

This would be potentially be a wave riding up a front. Timing would need to be just right, but the ingredients are there.

Unfortunately the Euro took a step back at 12z for CTP. The Highs are still in a good position. It will come down to the push of cold air and the strength and timing of the wave. Lots of time to resolve.

12z UKMET is still a hit as well for Friday… @losetoa6 do you have a PA centered map for the Ukie? I saw this map posted by our friends to the south. In Most of our CTP events, we score better snow when I-95 is mixing…

12z Canadian improved wintry chances for Friday too… 12z top vs. 0z bottom

The 12z GFS has a good looking High position sitting in southern Quebec. The 12z also shows moisture stretching all the way back into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

The last 3 GFS runs have trended more wintry for Friday. It appears to heading in the general direction of the Euro for a change… Here is 12z, 6z and 0z for the same Friday time stamp,

The GFS has had some great runs over the last 2 days for the first 2 weeks of February. I posted the model runs a couple of pages back in this thread showing a series of storms from recent GFS runs that could produce a very wintry first half of February.

Lol, plenty of cold this month. This doesn’t even mention the number of frigid overnight lows. It’s a below normal month in the middle of Winter that some people thought is now impossible because of….

Really hoping the Euro & Ukie are right. They are overdue for a medium range win…

The 18z GFS keeps going with more chances towards the end of the run. Day 16 ends with a cold look with a developing low in the Central states that could take aim at us if the run went out a few more days.

The 18z GFS is lining up the Winter storm chances over the next 16 days. We should have opportunities to score more snow. Rest up…many days of tracking are on the way….

This would be a front pushing through with energy left behind that then causes a second wave to develop that brings the frozen precip. These are difficult to pull off, but we have scored in the past with this type of set up.

Here is the trend on the Canadian from 12z yesterday to 12z today. Check out difference in the low position. The trend could be our friend this time for more wintry outcome.

Yes, Thursday pm into Friday has been trending towards a better cold press with a solid wave running along the slowly moving front. The 12z Canadian & GFS are slowly trending southeast with the cold press and the 12z Euro showed how CTP can win in this set up. Let’s see how this trends over the next couple of days.

The 6z GEFS has temps below normal for the first half of February with a few Winter storm chances. Once we get past our quick few day warm up this week, we should be back in the Winter storm chance business. Here are GEFS temps for week 1 and 2 and then the 10 day snow from day 5 to 15.

Where is @canderson with a Harrisburg wind report?

Absolutely brutal wind… Temp 15 Wind chill is 6