Blizzard of 93

Thanks, I’ll take my chances with a moisture laden storm coming up from the south in mid January with bitter cold the day before the storm. We will see how it plays out. Also, side note, nice Sixers win tonight in Miami!

Warning criteria snow to MDT this GFS run

Best GFS run for the LSV since Thursday pm.

0z ICON has the dual low look with low in NC and WV. The front end thump is nice. Warning snow once again to Harrisburg.

The precip in the southeast currently is impressive! The earlier start time on the HRRR might be accurate.

Correction good Sir… the next one is ours! It is sitting right where we want it at that range!

I like that 0z HRRR run… 6 inches of snow to Harrisburg.

18z EPS & Control run steady.

18z Euro

The 18z Euro held serve.

I love shoveling while tracking another event that is in the short or medium range!

Lol, I expect a change to ice, but not 50!

If it has that then the whole run needs tossed. No way anyone gets close to 50 on Monday around here.

I like his 6 inch line running right near Harrisburg.

The 18z HRRR was nice as @Bubbler86 said for the LSV for the front end thump of snow. Here is the snow map as of midnight tomorrow in the LSV when the mixing is underway. It echoes my point from this morning that the Warning criteria snow could already be on the ground before the snow changes to mix by midnight.

It doesn’t make sense, but time will tell and they will just change it while the storm is ongoing so it looks like their forecast verified! Lol!

I agree, very different set up with Watches and Warnings and the county groupings. It doesn’t make sense to me at all…

The 12z Euro control run gets 5 inches to Harrisburg.

The 12z EPS had a slight uptick in snow for Harrisburg over the last few runs.

@MAG5035 Any thoughts on the triple point look on the Euro?

12z Euro has over 4 inches at MDT with the 6 inch line to Carlisle, Newport & Chambersburg.

Here is the 12z Euro close up snow map.

Here is some more from the 12z Euro. We will need to see if future model runs show the triple point any possible impacts.

Here is the 12z Euro. I is now showing a triple point low which I have mot seen yet for this storm.

CTP might wait until tonight for Warning & Advisory announcements. They just reissued their Watch with some updated wording. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-160700- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. The greatest chance of the heavier snow amounts will be across the Central Mountains. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible Sunday evening into Sunday night.