Blizzard of 93

Welcome!

Great, I lurked for a few years before I joined! @paweather has another Lebanon county person on here now!

Welcome to the board!

MDT at 8 pm had 1.50 vis. Light snow and 29/24. I am extra interested in MDT this event with the contest on the line!

30/25 in Marysville with light snow picking up. Car tops caved.

18z Euro also ramping up from 12z!

The radar looks sweet with snow stretching back to Tennessee!

Very light flurries just started in Marysville! Snow blower is now in position & ready. I waited until tonight so I would not be accused of jinxing anything! Lets do this!!!

Lunch time snow day post! 3.9 snow .29 precip Need to factor in the MDT take off patterns…Hopefully the Observer has a good day!

6z Euro has a little uptick from 0z for Harrisburg & York,

Here is some of the CTP discussion today. Latest ensemble mean qpf, combined with WPC mean snow ratios in the 12-15/1 range, support snow totals tonight ranging from less than an inch north of I-80, to around 4 inches over Somerset and Bedford counties. As for timing, latest hi-res guidance indicates snow will develop across the southwest part of the forecast area by dusk, then rapidly overspread the rest of the area during the evening hours.

The 6z NAMs have figured out how things work around here… Rouzerville & Cashtown win. MDT does well too.

The 6z GFS still looks good too. Kuchera map Lancaster county jackpot.

6z HRRR looking good with precip. This 10-1 ratio map still gets 4 to Harrisburg.

Great post this evening by @MillvilleWx in the Mid Atlantic thread on the storm. Great in depth analysis!

0z GFS Kuchera Some places might have a chance at 6 or more inches of snow depending on where the heavy band sets up.

3k NAM has jackpot for @Bubbler86 MDT not far behind at 4.7 of snow.

MDT jackpot on the 12k NAM

The pattern for next week & beyond looks very interesting to say the least. We are going to be very busy in here with tracking & more tracking!

Here is the 0z HRRR precip & snow. This is only 10:1 ratio, and I don’t have Kuchera for this model. With 15:1 ratio, some places in the LSV would get over 5 inches of snow if this run verified!

The 0z HRRR is juiced up!

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 PAZ036-056-063-061230- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.220106T2200Z-220107T0900Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, and Carlisle 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry and Cumberland Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will not start to accumulate until after sunset and will end in the middle of the night.

Speaking of ALEET… Here is DT’s call

ALEET…ALEET…the rest of the LSV is now in the Advisory! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 PAZ057-059-061230- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.220107T0000Z-220107T1100Z/ Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Dauphin and Lebanon Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will not start to accumulate until late evening and will end before sunrise.

This looks right as well with the Rouzerville & Cashtown jackpot!