Blizzard of 93

Very true, but still frustrating to see it go the wrong way to start 12z. We can’t afford backwards steps on the northern fringes.

We still have 12z, 18z, 0z & even 6z for final adjustments. I am not expecting for the LSV to get near the jackpot, but an Advisory event for the LSV would not need much of a bump today.

It actually just improved at 9z a bit & Harrisburg gets 4 inches of snow this run.

Here is the 6z Euro Kuchera map. Is another 50 mile bump north possible today?

The 6z Euro had another bump north. Warning level snow now gets to far southern York & Lancaster counties this run. Large difference from 6z today (top) vs 12z yesterday (bottom) on the Euro.

Here is CTP’s take for tomorrow. The LSV is still in the game. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Chance for snowfall for late tonight/Mon AM for the far SE is looking a little better. Latest 06Z guidance and 03Z SREF yield an inch or two for far SErn York Co and srn Lanc Co. Will think about nudging the PoPs up and get serious about adding an inch or two for accum there. Still, forecasting the northern extent of the snow is going to be a bear. Will continue to broadbrush the PoPs there, with high chc on PoPs in the srn halves of those counties. Would not be surprised if the dayshift were to nudge things into likely PoPs.

Here is CTP’s comment on Thursday night’s event. After that, things are beginning to look a little more interesting. The extended models are suggesting that an area of low pressure will develop over the southeastern United States and impact some portion of the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday into Thursday night. This is still several days away, and the forecasted track of this system will undoubtedly fluctuate between now and then. However, with chilly air in place, we could be looking at an impactful winter weather event somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region late next week. There is still plenty of time to monitor how things will unfold with this event, so stay tuned.

This is fairly bold for CTP for 5 days out. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Meanwhile, in the short term, the 3z SREF mean really juiced up for tomorrow’s chance.

The 0z Euro Control shows a nice compromise between the GFS southeast solution & the inland running 0z Euro Op.

0z GEFS & 0z Canadian look good for Friday.

The 0z GEFS & 0z Canadian are still looking great for Friday.

I agree, The pattern is progressive. There is no “kicker” system to influence the 1/3 storm. The next 24 hours are going to be very interesting.

Yes, this is the Kuchera map. 2 inches up to Harrisburg this run.

Here is the full view of the 0z GFS for Monday morning.

Question for everyone… What would stop this from coming further north? I don’t see a pressing High. I don’t see too much confluence. I don’t see an interfering Lakes low. We still have over 1 day to bring this another 50 or more miles north of the GFS is right.

Advisory level event for the LSV this run.

0z GFS trend is our friend in the LSV for Monday!

18z EPS is still looking good for the 6th/7th.

Yes! I got it set up a couple of days ago and today is the first precip to measure. This should keep me active here year round!

.67 here today in Marysville as of 8pm.

I’m more looking forward to the better chance for us on the 6th/7th, but I certainly wouldn’t mind bumping our way to an Advisory on Monday.

Slight bump north on the 18z Euro with the northern extent of the Monday precip. Still some work to do for the LSV.

Maybe the Monday storm will end up like the Major snowstorm last December? Within 3 days it went from a jackpot in MD/southern PA to a jackpot in northern PA/central New England. I don’t think this will happen this time, but it’s possible to end up with an Advisory event in southern PA if this continues as the GFS shows the current trend.

18z Euro doesn’t run until 7pm