Blizzard of 93

The 6z NAMs have figured out how things work around here… Rouzerville & Cashtown win. MDT does well too.

The 6z GFS still looks good too. Kuchera map Lancaster county jackpot.

6z HRRR looking good with precip. This 10-1 ratio map still gets 4 to Harrisburg.

Great post this evening by @MillvilleWx in the Mid Atlantic thread on the storm. Great in depth analysis!

0z GFS Kuchera Some places might have a chance at 6 or more inches of snow depending on where the heavy band sets up.

3k NAM has jackpot for @Bubbler86 MDT not far behind at 4.7 of snow.

MDT jackpot on the 12k NAM

The pattern for next week & beyond looks very interesting to say the least. We are going to be very busy in here with tracking & more tracking!

Here is the 0z HRRR precip & snow. This is only 10:1 ratio, and I don’t have Kuchera for this model. With 15:1 ratio, some places in the LSV would get over 5 inches of snow if this run verified!

The 0z HRRR is juiced up!

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 PAZ036-056-063-061230- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.220106T2200Z-220107T0900Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, and Carlisle 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry and Cumberland Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will not start to accumulate until after sunset and will end in the middle of the night.

Speaking of ALEET… Here is DT’s call

ALEET…ALEET…the rest of the LSV is now in the Advisory! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 PAZ057-059-061230- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.220107T0000Z-220107T1100Z/ Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Dauphin and Lebanon Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will not start to accumulate until late evening and will end before sunrise.

This looks right as well with the Rouzerville & Cashtown jackpot!

Here is another zoomed in CTP view of the 18z Euro. Sign me up!

No one posted the SREF? The day shift on here is slipping….Lol

CTP put this out today.

Things are getting real when you see the RAP posted!

6z RGEM was nice & tucked near the coast. It this track verified, we would probably see even more upside than depicted on this snow map.

@paweather The 3k NAM should cheer you up (maybe for a few minutes…!)

6z ICON looks decent. I only have this at 10:1, so Kuchera would be slightly higher amounts.

6z GFS

This a a cold storm & it’s January, where our typical ratio is 12 to 13 to 1, so Kuchera ratio should be best for this storm instead of the 10:1 maps.

0z Euro wasn’t too bad for the LSV.

Slight move in the right direction on 0z GFS compared to 18z