Blizzard of 93

The Euro, Canadian & the ensembles have had the Friday storm most runs the last few days, while the GFS has been bouncing around. I also enjoyed the 12z Canadian today.

The latest SREF is a step back from the run earlier today, but it still gets Advisory snow to the LSV tomorrow.

I’ve been radar hallucinating as well…

I usually like to get in the precip shield, even if on the northern fringe like in this case, & then take my chances that banding may over perform in some areas.

It was never gone.,.

Here Is a zoomed in 18z GFS snow map for most of CTP.

I like the expanse of the precip shield. Usually there is a second good band well north of the main precip shield. Maybe someone in the LSV gets a little surprise.

Here is another view of the 18z GFS.

12z Euro looks good for Friday.

Hopefully this front stalls just south of the LSV to give the storm a nice boundary to run up tonight.

59 here with clouds & sun. Took a little family New Years hike this morning & it felt like April!

The 12z Canadian looks great for Friday.

Late week has looked good on Every model & ensemble on & off the last few days. We are in good shape for Thursday night.

Very true, but still frustrating to see it go the wrong way to start 12z. We can’t afford backwards steps on the northern fringes.

We still have 12z, 18z, 0z & even 6z for final adjustments. I am not expecting for the LSV to get near the jackpot, but an Advisory event for the LSV would not need much of a bump today.

It actually just improved at 9z a bit & Harrisburg gets 4 inches of snow this run.

Here is the 6z Euro Kuchera map. Is another 50 mile bump north possible today?

The 6z Euro had another bump north. Warning level snow now gets to far southern York & Lancaster counties this run. Large difference from 6z today (top) vs 12z yesterday (bottom) on the Euro.

Here is CTP’s take for tomorrow. The LSV is still in the game. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Chance for snowfall for late tonight/Mon AM for the far SE is looking a little better. Latest 06Z guidance and 03Z SREF yield an inch or two for far SErn York Co and srn Lanc Co. Will think about nudging the PoPs up and get serious about adding an inch or two for accum there. Still, forecasting the northern extent of the snow is going to be a bear. Will continue to broadbrush the PoPs there, with high chc on PoPs in the srn halves of those counties. Would not be surprised if the dayshift were to nudge things into likely PoPs.

Here is CTP’s comment on Thursday night’s event. After that, things are beginning to look a little more interesting. The extended models are suggesting that an area of low pressure will develop over the southeastern United States and impact some portion of the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday into Thursday night. This is still several days away, and the forecasted track of this system will undoubtedly fluctuate between now and then. However, with chilly air in place, we could be looking at an impactful winter weather event somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region late next week. There is still plenty of time to monitor how things will unfold with this event, so stay tuned.

This is fairly bold for CTP for 5 days out. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Meanwhile, in the short term, the 3z SREF mean really juiced up for tomorrow’s chance.

The 0z Euro Control shows a nice compromise between the GFS southeast solution & the inland running 0z Euro Op.

0z GEFS & 0z Canadian look good for Friday.

The 0z GEFS & 0z Canadian are still looking great for Friday.