Blizzard of 93

EC = close to something really good later next week. There is some ridging out west and there is plenty of cold High pressure to our north & northwest. As it is, the storm transfers from western PA to just north of NYC. It would not take much to have a little more flat solution or a slightly earlier transfer to bring us the snow goods.

Thank you! Yes indeed…. We have been on a good run lately.

40 years of history show many bad years mixed in….

I think we have mostly a good group here. The activity is at an all time high. It will be more fun when Winter gets good. I love this place!

Yes, this is true. Several good quality posters left the Mid Atlantic & New York thread over the last few years. I think they were overwhelmed by the negativity and got tired of fighting it. @psuhoffman is posting much less than other years. @Bob Chill is mostly gone. Those 2 were the main reason that I joined this place. I lurked for years and read their detailed comments everyday. I learned a ton from those guys. The New England thread is sadly following in their footsteps this season. The good quality posters are being overwhelmed with all of the negative & mostly ridiculous posters that add no value to the discussion. The New York thread is mostly unreadable. I feel bad for @MJO812 . He looks for snow chances, but gets trashed everyday for trying to be positive & look for snow. Sadly, this is the way of the world on social media and the way of society in general. Everything is the here & now with instant gratification. There is little regard for history or knowledge.

Absolutely, but that’s probably close top 10 all time Winter in Harrisburg… Lots of years even going back to the 80’s & 90’s struggled to get to double digit totals.

You mean like this Harrisburg seasonal snow map since 1980 from CTP. Lots of good & lots of bad…. I might need to post this as a daily reminder for some people…

Yes, I agree. As I pointed out yesterday, MDT is only around 4 inches below normal snow at this point. If that Euro storm materializes later next week, we would suddenly be above normal snow, with 2 and a half months left to legitimately score good snow.

Here is the storm that you mentioned that the 0z Euro had for later next week.

Lol… It’s not even New Year’s Eve…. If we get to Groundhog Day still in the single digits…then I’ll worry.

The 0z GFS is exciting now for the LSV. Here is the Kuchera ratio map. Hopefully 6z keeps the good trends going…

This better illustrates the good changes in the right direction on the 0z Euro. 0z Euro is the top photo. 12z Euro for same time stamp on the bottom.

Good step by the 0z Euro in the right direction for the Sunday Night/Monday storm.

The end of the 0z NAM run looks to be holding back some energy for the trailing wave potential on Sunday.

Yes, he is a great poster!

Here is another look at the 18z Euro at the end of its run. Hopefully 0z runs keep moving in the right direction.

That is really specific!

Perhaps the ridge to the south & east will put up just enough resistance in order for the follow up wave to ride the boundary in a spot that works for us?

Just to brighten the mood in here and for entertainment purposes only…. Here is the long range 18z GFS for January 11th.

I read his post today. I’m focusing on the last sentence from the section that you quoted. The ensembles are taking the -PNA from off of the charts negative towards closer to neutral or just slightly negative. This could allow the other pattern drivers to take over, such as the MJO, which as you mentioned looks to soon be heading finally into phase 8.

Unfortunately, the 0z & 6z models went the wrong direction for the January 2nd/3rd chance. Onto 12z and beyond…

MDT recorded 1.0 of snow yesterday. This brings the seasonal total to 1.1 inches of snow. The normal average snow through yesterday is 4.7 inches, so MDT is only currently 3.6 below normal snow.

Time will tell, but either way I like the way the ensembles are heading for January.

The 18z Euro Control at the end of its 6 day run shows a way to get the second wave to potentially come up to impact our region early next week. Energy is still available in the south to ride up to possibly deliver the goods.

I like seeing it this way for now. The recent pattern has pushed mostly every system to the north & west as the storms approach. Maybe the South East ridge will help to keep the storm from escaping out to sea??