The storm on the 22nd can not yet be written off. The 6z GFS is now taking it off the mid Atlantic coast out to sea, but it is much closer than recent days.
This is certainly getting more interesting. There were some good looking solutions on various models back on Sunday and Monday for the 22nd timeframe. Maybe this storm will make a comeback?
The models the last day or so have started to recognize & show influence from the blocking.
This GFS run shows it well on the 26th.
I will take my chances with this look.
Not a major storm pattern for now, but I will take a few Advisory level events or front end snow to mix type of events to get this Winter going.
Yes, most models have some type of system approaching our region around Christmas.
The 0z GFS had a nice front end snow to mix arriving Christmas night.
Long way to go, but the pattern is heading the right direction next week. Now we just need to identify the specific storm chances.
Just for holiday fun & entertainment purposes and whatever other disclaimers need to be applied…
Here is the 18z GFS. It has mixed precip Christmas night and then snow on New Year’s Eve day.
It would certainly make the holidays more festive to be tracking Winter storm chances.
My math for the Winter game is a simple 4 quarters -Dec.,Jan., Feb., & March.
These of course are the 4 months when good snow is the most possible.
Therefore, to me, we are currently just starting the second half of the 1st quarter of Winter.
Yes, the pattern look on the ensembles still look good next week and beyond.
Many teleconnections still look to be in our favor moving forward into prime climo snow season.
Our snow time will come if this pattern look verifies.
The average high temperature for today’s date at MDT is 43….
So we “should” still have highs over 40 for a high at this time.
I see your point. We have had several days near and over 50, with a few more to go before we return to more seasonal temps next week.
MDT is 4.6 above normal average temperature through yesterday for the month so far.
Indeed, I just took a look.
Monday
A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Yes, and so does the 18z GFS.
Here is another view. Great low track to the sweet spot right off of the coast of OCMD.
Still 1 week to go, but various Op runs of the main models over the last few days have had a storm in this time period. The main ensembles are showing support as well.
Lots of time for changes in either direction, but I am certainly enjoying this Happy Hour run. Good way to brighten up a Monday evening!