Blizzard of 93

It’s nice to see 2 snow chances on the 12z GFS that are both less than 200 hours away.

Yes, the 12z GFS has a snow chance now for Next weekend. Here is another look at Next weekend’s chance.

Let’s see what the Canadian says a little later.

Either way, this 12z GFS solution is still way different than last night’s Euro & Ukie.

The “blue” snow line has been steadily moving south over the last 4 runs.

The 12z GFS took another step in the right direction with more frozen for CTP for Wednesday.

@losetoa6 I think a compromise of the Global ensembles is best at this point as CTP indicated. 12z runs coming up soon!

Here are CTP’s thoughts from the morning discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light to moderate precipitation event with mean qpf between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in low level cold air, so some wintry precip appears a good probability, especially over central/northern Pa. Some guidance tracks a weak surface low over western Pa, which could result in a wintry mix (rain south), rather than snow.

I really really like seeing “snow likely” !!!

Here is CTP’s current zone forecast for Harrisburg. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Tuesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

The Canadian seems like the “middle ground” solution right now that would produce a nice region wide Advisory event. The GFS is trending the right way and the Euro/Ukie are missing to the south & east. I like where we stand right now.

The 6z GEFS had its best look yet for this Wednesday’s chance.

The 0z Canadian ensemble looked very nice as well.

Good morning sir! My favorite dart was the 0z Canadian.

I’m already moving past the temporary warm up. My mindset is going to be to enjoy the snow or mixed event this week. Then I’m going to track the return of colder winter pattern towards the 3rd full week of December.

CTP is ramping up their coverage of the Wednesday storm chance. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-051100- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely Monday afternoon and night in the wake of a strong cold front. A wintry mix or widespread light to moderate snowfall is possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night as low pressure moves northeast from the Southern Appalachians, followed by as vigorous upper level disturbance moving east from the Ohio River Valley. The greatest threat for several inches of snow is across the Northwest Mountains of Pennsylvania, while the best chance for significant mixed precipitation is across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state.

The 0z ICON is getting tonight’s runs off on the right foot for the LSV and our northern MD friends.

I need to hold onto my 3rd place ranking. I will take the bronze. No way will I catch you or @paweather I just need to keep @Itstrainingtime time off of the medal stand!

We also last year had 2 storms that brought over 1 foot of snow to most of us. MDT also ended up with above normal snow with 36 inches. We had good periods and lots of waiting around periods. We had no snow in January until the last day of the month and no March snow. We almost never have wall to wall snow from November through March. We just need to hope that we have a few good periods between now and March so that we can look back fondly on the season.

Yes! That would be classic! Then we need to have @canderson declare that he bets MDT won’t get 1 inch of snow even if we have an Advisory for 2 to 4 inches!

The Mid Atlantic thread is already unreadable and it’s only December 3rd! I feel bad for @psuhoffman ! Hopefully he posts here every now & then.

First time that I’ve seen the JMA posted this year! Lol, now we are really tracking!

The 12z Euro Op has this look at day 10. Warm up delayed?

No reason to punt anything. It might snow on Wednesday. Things then look very transient. We just will need timing to score an event. It might warm up for a bit after day 10, but phase 7 of the MJO says that we should return to a colder pattern thereafter.

Here is this from CTP in their discussion today for Wednesday: Models continue to show moisture overrunning a retreating cold sector on Wednesday with rain or snow likely. There is the potential for accumulating snow especially over northern parts of CPA.