Blizzard of 93

Not really… the GFS has been steady with its solution for CTP for the last 3 runs.

CTP has this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook: A period of snow or wintry mix is possible late Tuesday night through late Wednesday from a potential storm system. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the track and strength of this system so details in timing, precipitation type and the amount of precipitation will change over the next several days.

CTP has this for Harrisburg Tuesday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

The 6z GFS is still on board for good Wednesday snow for CTP.

Here is the 0z GFS Kuchera map

Where do I sign?

Lol…I was busy with the family this afternoon and evening. We took the kids to see Santa at Elizabeth Farms in Brickerville. Then we did some Christmas shopping. I will be ready for 0z runs tonight!

The 18z GFS says it’s time for your “snow mow”!

The 12z Canadian also has the storm next weekend, but with a slightly warmer solution for now.

It’s nice to see 2 snow chances on the 12z GFS that are both less than 200 hours away.

Yes, the 12z GFS has a snow chance now for Next weekend. Here is another look at Next weekend’s chance.

Let’s see what the Canadian says a little later.

Either way, this 12z GFS solution is still way different than last night’s Euro & Ukie.

The “blue” snow line has been steadily moving south over the last 4 runs.

The 12z GFS took another step in the right direction with more frozen for CTP for Wednesday.

@losetoa6 I think a compromise of the Global ensembles is best at this point as CTP indicated. 12z runs coming up soon!

Here are CTP’s thoughts from the morning discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light to moderate precipitation event with mean qpf between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in low level cold air, so some wintry precip appears a good probability, especially over central/northern Pa. Some guidance tracks a weak surface low over western Pa, which could result in a wintry mix (rain south), rather than snow.

I really really like seeing “snow likely” !!!

Here is CTP’s current zone forecast for Harrisburg. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Tuesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

The Canadian seems like the “middle ground” solution right now that would produce a nice region wide Advisory event. The GFS is trending the right way and the Euro/Ukie are missing to the south & east. I like where we stand right now.

The 6z GEFS had its best look yet for this Wednesday’s chance.

The 0z Canadian ensemble looked very nice as well.

Good morning sir! My favorite dart was the 0z Canadian.

I’m already moving past the temporary warm up. My mindset is going to be to enjoy the snow or mixed event this week. Then I’m going to track the return of colder winter pattern towards the 3rd full week of December.

CTP is ramping up their coverage of the Wednesday storm chance. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-051100- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely Monday afternoon and night in the wake of a strong cold front. A wintry mix or widespread light to moderate snowfall is possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night as low pressure moves northeast from the Southern Appalachians, followed by as vigorous upper level disturbance moving east from the Ohio River Valley. The greatest threat for several inches of snow is across the Northwest Mountains of Pennsylvania, while the best chance for significant mixed precipitation is across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state.