Blizzard of 93

The 18z GFS also had this storm approaching at the end of the run. Only 384 hours away…,

Yes, it was a good fantasyland GFS 18z run!

Another below normal day in the books yesterday at MDT. This was the 13th below normal day of the month so far. MDT is currently at a -1 temperature departure for the month. With the current forecast, I think there is a good chance of finishing below normal for the month.

The pattern looks decent for week 2 as we end November & begin December. The ridge is out west and the trough is in the east. There is still decent blocking up north as well. We need to get the troughing out of Alaska to not interfere with our cold air source. Here is the 0z EPS( Euro ensemble) & 0z GEPS(Canadian ensemble).

This week will contribute to the -0.7 temperature departure for the month so far at MDT.

Here is the CTP point & click forecast for Harrisburg this week. Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 33. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Sunday A chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Night Showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 42. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 47. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. Thanksgiving Day Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

We are well on way to a below normal November in the Harrisburg area.

Yes, I think some people don’t realize that the average high is still 53 for yesterday. The average low is 35 for yesterday.

CLIMDT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 222 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2021 ................................... ...THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2021... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1888 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 46 134 PM 72 1913 53 -7 49 1921 1928 MINIMUM 34 1159 PM 18 1924 35 -1 28 AVERAGE 40 44 -4 39

Lol… it’s back and forth with most days below normal to normal. Maybe 1 or 2 warm days mixed in ahead of a cold front. All is well on our step down to Winter.

It looks like MDT made it down to 28 overnight.

Lol! Where do you see the posts per thread amounts on here?

It’s November…Average highs in the LSV are still in the low 50’s right now. I am happy if a November provides me with first flakes, first dusting or first car topper. MDT averages only around 1 inch of snow in November. Heck, even December only averages around 6 inches of snow in Harrisburg. It is very very early in the game.

I don’t get it..please explain?

MDT is running -1 in temperatures for November through yesterday.

MDT only made it to a high of 52 today after a low of 32 this morning. Another below normal day this month. The average high is still 53 at MDT for today’s date.

Get well soon! Same to @Voyager ! We will need you guys to be 100% for snow tracking season!

Lol.. you joined the @Itstrainingtime year long air conditioning club!

I like that most of western & northern PA got their first snow of the year a few days ago. The Lake effect & upslope regions in New York & New England are also on the snow board. These are all good signs for us that Winter is on the way!

Yes, we are stepping down into late Fall and early Winter over the next couple of weeks. Most years we don’t get measurable snow in the LSV until December.

The 0z Euro & GFS both have some snow in southern PA the day after Thanksgiving.

Lol…but I posted the snow map after @MAG5035 mentioned it!

I liked the look at the end of the 10 day Euro Op. run today. Low pressure developing over the south central states. High Pressure building in to our north and northwest. I would have liked to see what day 11 and 12 looked like. I think the pattern will give us opportunities to score snow early over the next few weeks.

MDT made it to 30 this morning.

The 0z EPS has a great looking pattern for the last week of November with blocking up top, ridge in the west and the trough in the east. If this look holds, we will soon be tracking winter storm chances in our region. Here is the the week 2 look and the look at day 15 at the end of the 15 day run as we begin December.