Blizzard of 93

I would be thrilled with several hours of light snow and getting the first measurable snow on the board for the season in the LSV.

Here is the 6z GFS.

The GFS & Euro are both on board with bringing the first widespread light snow event to most of CTP on Sunday from a Clipper system. Here is the 0z Euro

CTP included this in their discussion this morning. It looks like most La Niñas produced at least near median snow in State College. And then there is the legendary 95-96 .CLIMATE... La Nina looks like it will continue for the winter. Just ran some numbers and found that... Out of the last 41 winter seasons `80-81 thru `20-`21: - 16 have been La Nina during the DJF period (meteorological winter). In these 16 seasons, the State College Co-Op location (PSU`s Walker Building) snowfall has been: - Above normal (GT +1 standard deviation) for only 2 seasons (`83-`84 and `95-`96). 1995-1996 had nearly 100" of snow, - 9 seasons were near normal (median of 38.8" over the 41 seasons), and - 5 were below normal (LT -1 standard deviation).

The 12z Canadian also has the Sunday Clipper.

Here is something that is all good… The 18z Euro Control run has the Sunday Clipper. We are 5 days away. This is something to track.

Great! I got to see a few rounds of flurries today between Hazleton & Wilkes-Barre.

The 0z Euro & Canadian both have a little light snow for us Sunday & Monday.

How about we run the table just like 93-94 or 95-96 or 02-03 ?

I would certainly take a light event to get on the board or just see first snow flakes of the season here in the LSV.

Well done! I was just recently thinking that it is almost time for one of your “Day in the Life” of the Central PA forum with the setting being on the day before a Winter storm hitting us.

The 18z GFS also had this storm approaching at the end of the run. Only 384 hours away…,

Yes, it was a good fantasyland GFS 18z run!

Another below normal day in the books yesterday at MDT. This was the 13th below normal day of the month so far. MDT is currently at a -1 temperature departure for the month. With the current forecast, I think there is a good chance of finishing below normal for the month.

The pattern looks decent for week 2 as we end November & begin December. The ridge is out west and the trough is in the east. There is still decent blocking up north as well. We need to get the troughing out of Alaska to not interfere with our cold air source. Here is the 0z EPS( Euro ensemble) & 0z GEPS(Canadian ensemble).

This week will contribute to the -0.7 temperature departure for the month so far at MDT.

Here is the CTP point & click forecast for Harrisburg this week. Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 33. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Sunday A chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Night Showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 42. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 47. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. Thanksgiving Day Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

We are well on way to a below normal November in the Harrisburg area.

Yes, I think some people don’t realize that the average high is still 53 for yesterday. The average low is 35 for yesterday.

CLIMDT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 222 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2021 ................................... ...THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2021... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1888 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 46 134 PM 72 1913 53 -7 49 1921 1928 MINIMUM 34 1159 PM 18 1924 35 -1 28 AVERAGE 40 44 -4 39

Lol… it’s back and forth with most days below normal to normal. Maybe 1 or 2 warm days mixed in ahead of a cold front. All is well on our step down to Winter.

It looks like MDT made it down to 28 overnight.

Lol! Where do you see the posts per thread amounts on here?

It’s November…Average highs in the LSV are still in the low 50’s right now. I am happy if a November provides me with first flakes, first dusting or first car topper. MDT averages only around 1 inch of snow in November. Heck, even December only averages around 6 inches of snow in Harrisburg. It is very very early in the game.

I don’t get it..please explain?