Blizzard of 93

My overnight low in Marysville was 14

Here is the 6z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

I agree that the High strength & placement looks very good with this Thursday night & Friday event. The model runs that have brought the good snow further south in PA show a weaker & further south 1st wave earlier on Thursday. This allows the Cold fresh High to entrench further south and keeps the boundary closer to the MD line. This then produces for southern PA more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain with the main second wave overnight Thursday through Friday.

Here is another view of the 18z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

GFS is not wavering!

Here is 1 more Euro comparison. The 12z -top- has a weaker low that is not even worthy of an “L” on the map in western PA with more freezing rain further to the south than the 0z -bottom- which has a stronger low near Buffalo, NY at the same time stamp. Hopefully this is the beginning of its trend towards the GFS.

Here are some comparisons of the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro. The 12z Euro has the first wave weaker and further south than the 0z Euro. This allows time for colder air to build south, more similar to the GFS solution. 12z Euro top, 0z Euro middle, 12z GFS bottom.

Just where we want it at this range…hopefully….maybe? Imagine if the GFS is right for Friday and then the day 10 storm trends a little north? We could get caught up & then some in the snow department this season. At least we are back in the game!

The Euro made a move towards the GFS. @MJO812 I saw your post in here NYC thread and I agree that the Euro took a step towards the GFS (I didn’t want to get involved in the shenanigans on there…). I’ll try to post some maps soon to compare. Long way to go…

It was a great GFS run for snow for the turnpike area on north. The 12z Canadian was mostly ice for CTP. Lets see if the Euro makes a move soon?

Same here, much lighter snow now. I picked up a quick few tenths of an inch of snow mostly on the grass. Car tops & roads quickly melted as the rates dropped off.

Temp down to 30 now with all surfaces now snow covered with heavy snow currently in Marysville!

Heavy snow in Marysville with 26 mph wind gust and temp dropped 6 degrees in the last 30 minutes.

The squall line looks like it held together as it crossed the Alps…I mean the Appalachians.

Yes, it is now approaching the Susquehanna Valley. Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS STATE COLLEGE PA 1200 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 PAC009-037-041-043-055-057-067-093-097-099-107-109-191815- /O.NEW.KCTP.SQ.W.0008.220219T1700Z-220219T1815Z/ 1200 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 Bedford County-Columbia County-Cumberland County-Dauphin County-Franklin County-Fulton County-Juniata County-Montour County-Northumberland County-Perry County-Schuylkill County-Snyder County- The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Southern Bedford County in south central Pennsylvania... Central Schuylkill County in central Pennsylvania... Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania... Northern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania... Franklin County in south central Pennsylvania... Fulton County in south central Pennsylvania... Central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Snyder County in central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Montour County in central Pennsylvania... Columbia County in central Pennsylvania... Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania... Perry County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 115 PM EST. * At 1158 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from Central to Kreamer to near Blacklog to Everett to Berlin, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 35 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

Hopefully the Euro & Canadian get on board more over the next day or two. They seem to be keying on a 2 wave set up where the first wave brings some wintry weather to CTP, but then raises the heights a bit so the second wave is mostly an icy mix for most of us. The GFS has consistently been focused the last several runs of keeping the first wave well to our south, while allowing the cold to press more. Then the second main wave approaches and rides good precip into the cold air in place allowing for a front end thump of snow. This 12z run was mostly snow from the PA turnpike on north.

Here is the 12z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

More from the 12z GFS for Friday. After some mixing in the southern tier, many go back to all snow before ending.

Here are some frames of the 12z GFS for Friday.

While we wait for the snow squall to reach the LSV, did anyone check out the 12z GFS for the Friday event ? Another good run with more snow & less ice for Most of CTP and the LSV.

This is hilarious!

Action packed Hazardous Weather outlook from CTP for today & the Friday chance. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 454 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-201000- Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 454 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Snow squalls may create dangerous travel conditions this morning into early afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Snow and ice accumulation is possible Thursday into Friday and could result in hazardous travel conditions. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

The western half of PA is lit up with an impressive line of snow squalls. It will be Interesting to see if the squalls hold together after crossing the mountains.

Here is the 6z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain through Next Saturday am.

The 6z GFS held serve with a good front end thump of snow on Friday before a long period of sleet & freezing rain.