Blizzard of 93

If MDT ends up with 2 inches of snow on Wednesday, I would be thrilled to get our first Advisory level measurable snow on the board. Lots of time for a little bump back north. We have seen this millions of times over the years. This is the 12z GFS.

I like the last line… “latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.”

Here are CTP’s full thoughts this morning from their discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with regard to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light precipitation event for most of central Pa and perhaps moderate over southeast Pa if phasing of southern and northern branches of jet stream occurs soon enough to deepen surface low before exiting the Mid Atlantic coast. Ensemble mean qpf is currently only between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, but several members are significantly wetter over the southeast half of Pa. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in cold air and latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.

I love when CTP starts talking like this….

Here is more from CTP this morning. After a cold but mainly dry day Tuesday, eyes will turn their focus on a potential winter storm that will arrive from the Southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley for Wednesday.

Not really… the GFS has been steady with its solution for CTP for the last 3 runs.

CTP has this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook: A period of snow or wintry mix is possible late Tuesday night through late Wednesday from a potential storm system. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the track and strength of this system so details in timing, precipitation type and the amount of precipitation will change over the next several days.

CTP has this for Harrisburg Tuesday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

The 6z GFS is still on board for good Wednesday snow for CTP.

Here is the 0z GFS Kuchera map

Where do I sign?

Lol…I was busy with the family this afternoon and evening. We took the kids to see Santa at Elizabeth Farms in Brickerville. Then we did some Christmas shopping. I will be ready for 0z runs tonight!

The 18z GFS says it’s time for your “snow mow”!

The 12z Canadian also has the storm next weekend, but with a slightly warmer solution for now.

It’s nice to see 2 snow chances on the 12z GFS that are both less than 200 hours away.

Yes, the 12z GFS has a snow chance now for Next weekend. Here is another look at Next weekend’s chance.

Let’s see what the Canadian says a little later.

Either way, this 12z GFS solution is still way different than last night’s Euro & Ukie.

The “blue” snow line has been steadily moving south over the last 4 runs.

The 12z GFS took another step in the right direction with more frozen for CTP for Wednesday.

@losetoa6 I think a compromise of the Global ensembles is best at this point as CTP indicated. 12z runs coming up soon!

Here are CTP’s thoughts from the morning discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light to moderate precipitation event with mean qpf between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in low level cold air, so some wintry precip appears a good probability, especially over central/northern Pa. Some guidance tracks a weak surface low over western Pa, which could result in a wintry mix (rain south), rather than snow.

I really really like seeing “snow likely” !!!

Here is CTP’s current zone forecast for Harrisburg. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Tuesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

The Canadian seems like the “middle ground” solution right now that would produce a nice region wide Advisory event. The GFS is trending the right way and the Euro/Ukie are missing to the south & east. I like where we stand right now.