Blizzard of 93

Good morning! The 0z Canadian & 6z GFS both are showing a low near the NC/VA coast next Monday night into Tuesday am. The Euro is not onboard this run, but it has showed this storm on previous runs over the weekend. We might be just 1 week away from our first legit Winter threat to track.

Here is the EPO on the GEFS & Euro ensemble.

Here is the NAO on GEFS & Euro ensemble.

Here is another look at the teleconnections that @pasnownut posted above. There is general agreement between the GEFS & Euro ensemble as to the AO, NAO & EPO. Here is the AO for the next 15 days.

We are only in the first half of the first quarter. The game is just getting started!

I’m not really sure either what happened at this point. I apologize to you and everyone today if I derailed the thread. Hopefully some good came out of the discussions today from everyone. I enjoy your posts and look forward to reading your thoughts each day. We need to look at the whole pattern picture, whether it’s good or bad for snow chances. Please continue to post whatever needs to be discussed so we can look at every possibility. Also, thank you to your football team for defeating Washington today. It helped the Eagles playoff chances!

I’m ready to move forward as well. There were previous punting references, but now I understand they were not actually punting the whole winter. We have a good group on here. I am looking forward to sharing the events of this Winter as they develop in the coming weeks and months.

I am on board with posting the good and the bad and long as everyone is looking at the full range of possibilities and backing it up with something concrete. Whenever I post a map, it’s not that I am saying,“this is definitely happening”. I am merely showing what the model said on that particular run. Let’s get back on the hunt for the “snow train”!

Back to the weather… The 18z GFS has some front end snow to mix next Monday morning.

Thanks and good point. Most of us are here to chase snow. We only get 5 months out of the year when snow is truly possible. I chase first flake in the Fall to last the flake in the Spring. If the short or medium range doesn’t show something good, then we search for the long range signals for a pattern change. Right now, there are good signs of a pattern change starting next week and beyond. This snow chasing hobby is supposed to be fun and enjoyable. I choose that path that shows how good things might be possible based on solid information that I back up most of the time with posted maps. I am here to have a good time and enjoy Winter weather. I hope more posters choose to search for the good possibilities. Our Winter time is short, we might as well try to enjoy it!

I think This is the post of the year. Period & exclamation point.!

If posting something more than 7 days out is troop rally if it shows something that we like to see, then what should we call posting something that is 7 days out that shows something that we don’t like to see…? I just want to make sure that this logic works both ways?

Hopefully it pushes east just enough to put us on the right side of the boundary between the frigid air to the north vs. the warmth in the southeast. The storms could ride that contrasting boundary.

That is some frigid cold in the northern plains!

It’s all good everyone… I love this place and enjoy the interactions on here most days with everyone. Let’s have some fun as we await our first widespread Winter event in the coming period of time, hopefully by the holidays!

Let me go back later and find the posts…

Exactly. There are some on here that will not even believe it while there is an ongoing Winter storm Warning….

@Bubbler86 Lol…Are you really saying that you would rather look at a long range Op run instead of teleconnections that truly drive the pattern?

Lol… There were lots of punters out earlier this week…

Please read what @anotherman posted… Maybe a few of you will consider not punting because of some random Op run while everything else is pointing to better days ahead next week.

Lol… Op runs at post 10 days. Your High temps on the map that you posted are in the low 30s in the metropolitan area of Rouzerville, which is below normal for late December! We just want “cold enough” if you want good snow most of the time.

Thanks for posting this! Great write up for what should be on the way starting next week. For those without the time to read the whole thread… 13/ Bottom line: the projected MJO progression thru the W Hemisphere in the late Dec to mid-Jan timeframe broadly favors a colder than normal pattern in the central and eastern U.S....

Terrible? I see lots of potential looking at this 372 hour OP Run. Lots of cold air to tap into across all of Canada, including Ontario & Quebec. The time stamp is 18z (1pm) on the 27th with highs in CTP in the high 20’s to low 30’s. I think we would be in business if a storm was around…

Lol, MJO and teleconnections all say that we are in good shape starting next week.

Lol, everything is indicating that the pattern is changing next week. We will be tracking a real winter threat soon.