Blizzard of 93

Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. Wednesday Light snow likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I really enjoy snow games.

I would take the 18z NAM & 18z HRRR for Wednesday.

I like the look of the 6z at the end of the 16 day run. Lots of cold high pressure to the north with a storm in the south central states. If I may extrapolate the 384 hr. GFS just this once…. That storm could arrive right in time for Christmas!

The 6z GFS still has a couple inches of snow for the LSV on Wednesday.

Look what’s back for the LSV on Wednesday according to the 0z GFS…. I would be happy with a nice 2-4 inches of snow Advisory level event.

Here is the latest from CTP Hazardous Outlook .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Wind gusts from the west between 35 and 45 mph are expected Monday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and may result in a few isolated power outages. A light snow accumulation is possible on Wednesday and could result in limited to minor travel impacts. There is still some variability in the forecast so confidence remains low in regards to how much snow will fall.

@paweather , you and I should get together to play tennis sometime. We just need 1 more to get a doubles match going.

Unfortunately the trend is not our friend. I’m going to give it until tomorrow night before writing it off.

It’s been a roller coaster already and it’s only December 5th.

Hopefully it’s not a north trend like last December’s storm! If the GFS is right, we only would need a 50 mile bump north to get in the better snow.

If MDT ends up with 2 inches of snow on Wednesday, I would be thrilled to get our first Advisory level measurable snow on the board. Lots of time for a little bump back north. We have seen this millions of times over the years. This is the 12z GFS.

I like the last line… “latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.”

Here are CTP’s full thoughts this morning from their discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with regard to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light precipitation event for most of central Pa and perhaps moderate over southeast Pa if phasing of southern and northern branches of jet stream occurs soon enough to deepen surface low before exiting the Mid Atlantic coast. Ensemble mean qpf is currently only between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, but several members are significantly wetter over the southeast half of Pa. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in cold air and latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.

I love when CTP starts talking like this….

Here is more from CTP this morning. After a cold but mainly dry day Tuesday, eyes will turn their focus on a potential winter storm that will arrive from the Southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley for Wednesday.

Not really… the GFS has been steady with its solution for CTP for the last 3 runs.

CTP has this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook: A period of snow or wintry mix is possible late Tuesday night through late Wednesday from a potential storm system. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the track and strength of this system so details in timing, precipitation type and the amount of precipitation will change over the next several days.

CTP has this for Harrisburg Tuesday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

The 6z GFS is still on board for good Wednesday snow for CTP.

Here is the 0z GFS Kuchera map

Where do I sign?

Lol…I was busy with the family this afternoon and evening. We took the kids to see Santa at Elizabeth Farms in Brickerville. Then we did some Christmas shopping. I will be ready for 0z runs tonight!

The 18z GFS says it’s time for your “snow mow”!

The 12z Canadian also has the storm next weekend, but with a slightly warmer solution for now.