Blizzard of 93

How about “No torch” this Christmas. Seasonable means within a few degrees of average. The end of my CTP point & click for Christmas Eve: Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 41. I would call this Seasonable.

Another welcome back to the northern tier of CTP tonight and tomorrow… Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 221 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-181000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.211218T0900Z-211218T1800Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, and Laporte 221 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...The Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery conditions on untreated

Welcome back Winter to CTP Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 233 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 PAZ017>019-045-046-049>053-058-181945- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Schuylkill- 233 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A light wintry mix is expected to develop late tonight over the northern tier of the Commonwealth, generally for areas near, and just to the north of Interstate 80. Locally slippery travel conditions are possible on any untreated surfaces. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. A light wintry mix of sleet, and perhaps some patchy freezing rain on the ridge tops, is likely to continue Saturday morning, mainly near and to the north of Interstate 80. Again, localized slippery travel conditions are possible on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will warm enough for primarily rain by Saturday afternoon.

It all depends if we get clouds and any precip…or if we have partly cloudy. Either way it looks seasonal

The pattern still looks great moving forward. The week long warm up is over tomorrow. Next week we have chances to track. The better window is just beginning to open with no sign of closing anytime soon.

The 18z GFS has Christmas Eve day light snow for us.

Very sorry to hear that! Get well soon.

Sorry to hear that! I Hope all is well.

The 6z GFS also has Winter weather opportunities on Christmas, the 26th and again the 29th. Lots of tracking coming soon! This will make the holidays merrier for most of us!

The storm on the 22nd can not yet be written off. The 6z GFS is now taking it off the mid Atlantic coast out to sea, but it is much closer than recent days.

The 6z GFS is full of Winter storm potential during the holiday weeks. We should have a few tracking chances from now until the end of the year.

I’m sure the jackpot will end up in Cashtown or Rouzerville as usual!

The 0z GFS then keeps the low under us on the 26th. This would make Christmas weekend that much merrier!

The 0z GFS says Merry Christmas with some light snow early Christmas morning.

This is certainly getting more interesting. There were some good looking solutions on various models back on Sunday and Monday for the 22nd timeframe. Maybe this storm will make a comeback?

It’s just a matter of time before a storm goes our way with the blocking that’s developing.

Yes, it’s good to see 12z Euro put a storm under us at this time. I think enough cold air would be around for some snow if this track were to verify.

The models the last day or so have started to recognize & show influence from the blocking. This GFS run shows it well on the 26th. I will take my chances with this look. Not a major storm pattern for now, but I will take a few Advisory level events or front end snow to mix type of events to get this Winter going.

Absolutely! 100% this!

Yes, most models have some type of system approaching our region around Christmas. The 0z GFS had a nice front end snow to mix arriving Christmas night. Long way to go, but the pattern is heading the right direction next week. Now we just need to identify the specific storm chances.

Just for holiday fun & entertainment purposes and whatever other disclaimers need to be applied… Here is the 18z GFS. It has mixed precip Christmas night and then snow on New Year’s Eve day. It would certainly make the holidays more festive to be tracking Winter storm chances.

My math for the Winter game is a simple 4 quarters -Dec.,Jan., Feb., & March. These of course are the 4 months when good snow is the most possible. Therefore, to me, we are currently just starting the second half of the 1st quarter of Winter.

Yes, the pattern look on the ensembles still look good next week and beyond. Many teleconnections still look to be in our favor moving forward into prime climo snow season. Our snow time will come if this pattern look verifies.

Yes, even if there is no real wind of note in the LSV, if you go to south Philly during the same day it is usually windy!

The average high temperature for today’s date at MDT is 43…. So we “should” still have highs over 40 for a high at this time. I see your point. We have had several days near and over 50, with a few more to go before we return to more seasonal temps next week. MDT is 4.6 above normal average temperature through yesterday for the month so far.