Blizzard of 93

Just for holiday fun & entertainment purposes and whatever other disclaimers need to be applied… Here is the 18z GFS. It has mixed precip Christmas night and then snow on New Year’s Eve day. It would certainly make the holidays more festive to be tracking Winter storm chances.

My math for the Winter game is a simple 4 quarters -Dec.,Jan., Feb., & March. These of course are the 4 months when good snow is the most possible. Therefore, to me, we are currently just starting the second half of the 1st quarter of Winter.

Yes, the pattern look on the ensembles still look good next week and beyond. Many teleconnections still look to be in our favor moving forward into prime climo snow season. Our snow time will come if this pattern look verifies.

Yes, even if there is no real wind of note in the LSV, if you go to south Philly during the same day it is usually windy!

The average high temperature for today’s date at MDT is 43…. So we “should” still have highs over 40 for a high at this time. I see your point. We have had several days near and over 50, with a few more to go before we return to more seasonal temps next week. MDT is 4.6 above normal average temperature through yesterday for the month so far.

Indeed, I just took a look. Monday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Exactly! That’s the one!

The older that I get, I agree with you. I’ll take warm and dry if I can’t have the snow.

Sounds like a great night… let’s lock that in!

Lol, I will see what I can find later on. There are still good signs that we are headed in the right direction next week and beyond.

The 0z Euro has the storm but takes it out off of the coast instead of up, but it wouldn’t take many changes to potentially get a better result

The 0z Canadian also has the storm early next week on the coast.

The 0z GFS had another good looking run with the coastal storm potential for next Monday night & Tuesday.

Yes, and so does the 18z GFS. Here is another view. Great low track to the sweet spot right off of the coast of OCMD. Still 1 week to go, but various Op runs of the main models over the last few days have had a storm in this time period. The main ensembles are showing support as well. Lots of time for changes in either direction, but I am certainly enjoying this Happy Hour run. Good way to brighten up a Monday evening!

Good morning! The 0z Canadian & 6z GFS both are showing a low near the NC/VA coast next Monday night into Tuesday am. The Euro is not onboard this run, but it has showed this storm on previous runs over the weekend. We might be just 1 week away from our first legit Winter threat to track.

Here is the EPO on the GEFS & Euro ensemble.

Here is the NAO on GEFS & Euro ensemble.

Here is another look at the teleconnections that @pasnownut posted above. There is general agreement between the GEFS & Euro ensemble as to the AO, NAO & EPO. Here is the AO for the next 15 days.

We are only in the first half of the first quarter. The game is just getting started!

I’m not really sure either what happened at this point. I apologize to you and everyone today if I derailed the thread. Hopefully some good came out of the discussions today from everyone. I enjoy your posts and look forward to reading your thoughts each day. We need to look at the whole pattern picture, whether it’s good or bad for snow chances. Please continue to post whatever needs to be discussed so we can look at every possibility. Also, thank you to your football team for defeating Washington today. It helped the Eagles playoff chances!

I’m ready to move forward as well. There were previous punting references, but now I understand they were not actually punting the whole winter. We have a good group on here. I am looking forward to sharing the events of this Winter as they develop in the coming weeks and months.

I am on board with posting the good and the bad and long as everyone is looking at the full range of possibilities and backing it up with something concrete. Whenever I post a map, it’s not that I am saying,“this is definitely happening”. I am merely showing what the model said on that particular run. Let’s get back on the hunt for the “snow train”!

Back to the weather… The 18z GFS has some front end snow to mix next Monday morning.

Thanks and good point. Most of us are here to chase snow. We only get 5 months out of the year when snow is truly possible. I chase first flake in the Fall to last the flake in the Spring. If the short or medium range doesn’t show something good, then we search for the long range signals for a pattern change. Right now, there are good signs of a pattern change starting next week and beyond. This snow chasing hobby is supposed to be fun and enjoyable. I choose that path that shows how good things might be possible based on solid information that I back up most of the time with posted maps. I am here to have a good time and enjoy Winter weather. I hope more posters choose to search for the good possibilities. Our Winter time is short, we might as well try to enjoy it!

I think This is the post of the year. Period & exclamation point.!