Blizzard of 93

The Euro Control run was nice to see at 12z.

It’s good to see the “blue” extending south towards DC into northern VA on the CMC ensembles & the GEFS.

The Euro, Canadian & GEFS today each had a noticeable jump in snow totals for their 15 & 16 day totals. The “blue” on the map made a nice push south in week 2. These are just tools that I use for trend purposes in the Winter. If this trend continues to build, we could be in the snow business during the first week of January.

The GFS the last few runs in the first week of January looks active with chances of Winter weather. We just need to get the timing right with one of these cold Highs in Canada to force at least some front end chances.

I looked too and I have a difficult time believing that a 1040 High in Quebec would be dislodged so easily to allow a low to cut so far west. We would probably get a solid front end thump of snow to ice with that look.

Lol, I don’t block anyone! I’m off from now until Monday am, so lots of time for posting unless Christmas stuff is going on at the time. Hopefully we get above normal precip in feet of snow from January to March! You will be mowing twice a week this Spring!

Yes, I would have liked to see the 12z GFS 396 map…

Lol… But I thought we were in a another terrible drought….dead grass for years…

Yes, the 18z GFS has it for the 27th, but this run it runs out of steam east of the mountains.

I would take this 12z GFS storm on January 3rd.

The end of the 6z GFS is exactly where we want to see this pattern go for cold & snow.

Then on New Years night, the GFS has this Wintry mix for PA.

There are many fast moving systems heading east between Christmas & New Year’s Day. If the timing is right, we could see Winter weather from at least 1 of them.

The pattern is currently not ideal, but CTP mentions snow a few times in their discussion today over this coming week. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday will start dry, but a weak short-wave will bring light snow to the western and northern tier for Thursday evening. There will be a brief break in the precipitation before the next shortwave and PVA moves overhead and brings in the next round of precipitation by Christmas Eve evening. Temperatures are on the warm side, so expect mostly rain. However, some wintry mix is possible along the northern tier and at those higher elevations/cooler spots. Precipitation will hold on through most of Christmas day. Expect a wet Christmas instead of a white Christmas as this will be mostly all rain, but it is possible for some snowflakes to mix in with the rain as the low-pressure system moves out of the area Christmas night. Another shortwave will bring an additional round of precipitation for Sunday afternoon and evening. This system looks to be colder, so there will likely be snow across the northern tier, with a chance of a wintry mix across central Pennsylvania, and a rain/snow mix possible across the southern tier. The low-pressure system will move directly over the Commonwealth, and the positioning of this system will greatly determine precipitation type. At this point, the beginning of next week looks rather unsettled. An upper-level trough is likely to bring another low-pressure system to the area Monday/Tuesday. Precipitation type at this point is uncertain, but likely a rain/snow mix.

The CTP point in click for Christmas Eve for places just north of Harrisburg, such as Pillow, has snow mentioned… Friday Night Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

What the heck, it’s the Holidays, here is my present to @paweather The 12z Euro Control snow map.

Hey guys, I was busy watching the Eagles win! How about the 12z Euro Control run today.? If this were to verify many frowns on here would be turned upside down!

The 0z GFS & Canadian both have some snow for northern PA Christmas morning.

The 0z GFS has light snow for Christmas Eve.

The 18z GFS also has snow for northern & northeastern PA on Christmas.

The 18z GFS has some light holiday mood flakes early on Christmas Eve for most of PA.

The 12z Canadian showed snow and mixed precip for a good chuck of central & eastern PA early on Christmas.

The 0z Canadian had a colder look for next week and showed some snow potential for next Wednesday.

Good points again. Indeed I have no rules as to when I get my snow. I do understand and appreciate those that have preferences as to when they get their snow. In our region, we can’t expect continuous snowy patterns from December through March. I just hope that we capitalize when when we do have good periods.

Great point. This why, in terms of weather, I posted a couple of reminders of how long we had to wait for snow even in very good or great Winters.