Blizzard of 93

It’s a roller coaster until next week

All of the good signals are on all of the ensembles starting next week.

The ensembles all look great in week 2

The 12z Euro & Canadian ensembles still show the trough extending coast to coast. West based -NAO looks impressive for ensemble runs at 2 week range. We are still heading in a good direction for Winter weather chances.

I also like seeing the massive 1050+ Highs that are showing up in Canada & the northern US.

Then the 12z GFS had another Winter weather chance just after NewYear’s. Yes, I know….Op run at long range…. But it’s certainly possible with the pattern change that’s underway.

The 12z GFS showed a couple of Winter weather opportunities before New Year’s.

The main reason for the last 2 years is because of no March or April snow. The non-Winter of 19-20 had historically low snow the whole season. Last year we had snow in Dec., Jan. & Feb., but nothing in March- but above normal total for the whole season. In recent history, we had good March snow in 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019, so I’m not concerned about last 2 years not producing March snow, which really skews that chart that you posted. It’s interesting and thanks for posting it, but I don’t think we can draw any conclusions.

The best part is that the Euro & Canadian ensembles both agree with the GEFS with the pattern look for New Year’s weekend.

Here are 2 snapshots of the 6z GEFS showing the pattern progression over the next 2 weeks. Here is the look on Christmas and then the look on day 16 just after New Year’s weekend. If this happens as depicted, we lose the southeast ridge and see the trough extend to the east. The west based -NAO blocking up top looks very good as well. This could be a very good period for us as we head towards New Year’s weekend.

Unfortunately yes, but still time to go. We might need to keep waiting. The ensembles still look great in week 2 and beyond with blocking and the trough out West beginning to slowly get on the move.

Lol, thanks. Storms that bring a widespread 1 to 2 feet of snow in PA are rare. We historically get maybe get 1 of those type of storms every 5 years or so on average. We had 2 of these storms last year. This fact made it a good Winter in my book.

Here are just a few big picture thoughts on Winter, when just comparing to last year. Last year we had 1 really good Winter storm on December 16th that brought near 1 foot of snow in the Harrisburg area and near 2 feet in northern PA. We didn’t have any snow before the 12/16 storm and then nothing more than a car topper in January until the very last day of the month. We then had our second big storm on 1/31 into 2/1 that brought another 1 foot of snow to many in the LSV, while northeast PA got closer to 20 inches. The pattern last year looked great at times, but December we cashed in on 1 great storm. The pattern last January looked good as well, but no storms got their act together until the end on the month when we cashed in with our 2nd good storm. Then in February we had 3 or 4 more Advisory level events that combined to give our last foot of snow. Then in March, there was nothing again. Last year the snow all added up to 36 inches, which is 5 inches above normal at MDT. 2 good storms gave us 67% of our seasonal snow last season. My point is, we just need to be patient. We will have our chances. Hopefully we have a sustained run with several chances? Maybe we just get 1 or 2 good storms? Every Winter is different in how we get our snow. Let’s see how it plays out this year.

Yes, I was just thinking about this as well. Hopefully the turn towards more wet will time out well with peak climo in January and February.

The models have backed off of the good looks for some minor winter events that some runs were showing over the last day or two for the time period right around and just beyond Christmas. The ensembles look to be heading towards a much more favorable pattern for us in week 2 and rolling into the early New Year.

It’s good to see Advisories & Warnings from northern PA up through New England for tomorrow. Our time is coming soon. The pattern change is just beginning.

How about “No torch” this Christmas. Seasonable means within a few degrees of average. The end of my CTP point & click for Christmas Eve: Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 41. I would call this Seasonable.

Another welcome back to the northern tier of CTP tonight and tomorrow… Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 221 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-181000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.211218T0900Z-211218T1800Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, and Laporte 221 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...The Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery conditions on untreated

Welcome back Winter to CTP Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 233 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 PAZ017>019-045-046-049>053-058-181945- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Schuylkill- 233 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A light wintry mix is expected to develop late tonight over the northern tier of the Commonwealth, generally for areas near, and just to the north of Interstate 80. Locally slippery travel conditions are possible on any untreated surfaces. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. A light wintry mix of sleet, and perhaps some patchy freezing rain on the ridge tops, is likely to continue Saturday morning, mainly near and to the north of Interstate 80. Again, localized slippery travel conditions are possible on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will warm enough for primarily rain by Saturday afternoon.

It all depends if we get clouds and any precip…or if we have partly cloudy. Either way it looks seasonal

The pattern still looks great moving forward. The week long warm up is over tomorrow. Next week we have chances to track. The better window is just beginning to open with no sign of closing anytime soon.

The 18z GFS has Christmas Eve day light snow for us.

Very sorry to hear that! Get well soon.

Sorry to hear that! I Hope all is well.

The 6z GFS also has Winter weather opportunities on Christmas, the 26th and again the 29th. Lots of tracking coming soon! This will make the holidays merrier for most of us!