Blizzard of 93

My Power is finally back on! Now….Back to tracking!

The 18z GFS certainly warmed my spirits! My house is down to 58 currently. The 18z GFS would be epic for Christmas Eve Eve!!!

Still no power for me in Marysville!

Radar looks juiced now to the west of the LSV. If this is all snow, I might be in business!

The 12z GFS run was beautiful for next week!

We lost power in the last hour in Marysville thanks to this freezing rain. Power lines are encased in ice, so that must have done it for my neighborhood!

This is great to see on my lunch break! Sure enough, flakes recently mixed in & I am now transitioning to mostly snow! SPC for the win!

31 & Freezing rain in Marysville. Everything is covered in a sheet of ice. Side roads look icy & cars are encased in ice.

That’s towards the end of the Euro event next week after a lot of snow has fallen across the entire region even down into MD. The trend overnight was very positive & the look at H5 is drool worthy.

Here is the updated WWA from CTP. They actually upped the snow/sleet amount in this Advisory to up to 4 inches to the north of I-81. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 348 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-160000- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-221216T0000Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 348 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow and sleet accumulations of up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The gradient in snow and sleet accumulation will increase from southeast to northwest across the warning area with maximum snow and sleet to the north of I-81. Less than one inch of snow and sleet is expected to the south of US-30. A changeover to rain is expected in most places from south to north this afternoon.

Later this morning according to CTP and the GFS. Should be mixed with sleet as well.

Here is the 6z GFS Kuchera snow map.

The 6z GFS is still insisting that areas north of the PA turnpike flip to snow later on today. The GFS is on its own right now, but it’s fascinating to see if it will score a win or take a loss on this event. I’m rooting for the GfS upset win, but I’m also not expecting it…

Yes, and the Canadian & GFS at 0z also had Winter storms in the 22/23 period but not as extremely good as the Euro at this time.

Wow, wow, wow at the potential the 0z runs are showing for the 22/23 !!! This is trending into a possible very special couple of days of Winter weather right before Christmas!

What’s your current thinking on precip type & amounts for your area & the LSV?

I think rates will play a good part in precip type. When it gets heavy, hopefully we flip to snow for awhile.

That’s one heck of a crazy cutoff! if this somehow played out, my house in Marysville would have about 5 inches of snow, while my office in northern Harrisburg would have barely 1 inch.

Yes! It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out tomorrow. Hopefully we all get a good period of wintry weather tomorrow.

Temps at the onset will not be an issue for us tomorrow. Precip type in any one location especially for the LSV will be determined by the final track of the developing coastal low in NC.

Lots of options on the table for Christmas Eve Eve. The trend is our friend on the Op models & ensembles today.

30 with dew point of 19 currently in Marysville. Let’s get MDT on the board tomorrow more than a T that is on the books right now. Good chance of at least a few tenths of slop to record, but I’m hoping to get the first inch of the year for MDT. If the 18z HRRR or 18z GFS are right, then maybe MDT can score a little more?

19 for the low in Marysville this morning.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-150000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.221215T0600Z-221216T0000Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will move in to the area from west to east Thursday morning. This is expected to last several hours before an eventual change to rain occurs from south to north by the late afternoon into the evening.

The 0z GFS gets Advisory level snow to most of us north of the turnpike in the LSV. Warning level snow for the mid & upper Susquehanna Valley this run.